Scots public services 'performing significantly worse than before Covid'
The Institute for Fiscal Studies said many public services will likely face cuts in the coming years
Scotland's public services such as schools and hospitals are performing significantly worse than before Covid, a new report has found.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said Scottish schools spend £1,800 more per pupil than their English counterparts and yet attainment is worse north of the border.
Meanwhile, the number of hospital admissions and outpatient appointments is still below 2019 levels in Scotland, unlike in England and Wales.
However, Scottish courts have been significantly reducing backlogs over the last two years, the IFS said, while they have continued to rise slowly and steadily in England and Wales.
And A&E waits, while far from target, are not quite as long in Scotland as in the rest of Britain.
David Phillips, head of devolved and local government finance at the IFS, said: “Scottish public service spending is substantially higher than in England overall, including for schools, where performance seems to lag England.
“Looking ahead, there is set to be a significant slowdown in increases in funding from the UK government. Combined with a hangover from some bad budgeting habits the current Scottish Government has got into – for example, relying on one-off funding for recurrent costs such as pay increases – this means the Scottish budget will be under strain.
“Indeed, in the absence of increases in revenues – whether from tax rises or significant increases in economic growth in Scotland – many public services will likely face cuts in their budgets over the coming parliament. That will make sustaining – let alone improving – performance a real challenge for the next Scottish government.”
The latest findings are contained in a Scottish election briefing from the IFS, funded by the Nuffield Foundation and the Robertson Trust.
It says hospitals have so far failed to increase activity above pre-pandemic levels in Scotland, unlike in either England or Wales. Meanwhile, school absence rates remain higher in Scotland, and have risen sharply since the pandemic.
Attainment on Pisa [Programme for International Student Assessment] tests for 15-year-olds has fallen relative to England over the last decade. Historically, Scotland outperformed the other UK nations on these tests.
Public service spending in Scotland was 22 per cent higher per person than in England in 2024–25, the IFS said, although for health, the largest service, the difference was just 2 per cent.
Scottish schools spend 21 per cent or £1,800 more per pupil than English schools, with this gap having doubled over the last 15 years.
The IFS said current funding forecasts and spending plans imply cuts to many services – including councils and the police and justice system – in 2027–28 and 2028–29.
Scottish Conservative shadow finance secretary Craig Hoy MSP said: “This report is a damning indictment of the SNP’s financial incompetence. Their strategy of just constantly throwing money at the problems facing Scotland public services is not working.
“SNP ministers have wasted the last five years prioritising their independence obsession and fringe issues rather than focusing on recovering our economy and public services following the pandemic.
“Scots are being forced to pay more in tax on the SNP’s watch but are getting less in return. The nationalists’ mismanagement means further pain is on the way.
“The SNP cannot be trusted to be in control of our public services for another five years.”
Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie said “At the last election the SNP promised us a recovery from the pandemic – that pledge now lies in tatters.
“This damning analysis shows the SNP can no longer get the basics right. The SNP’s failures have put the founding principles of our NHS at risk and robbed the next generation of the education they deserve.”
The Scottish government was approached for comment.
Comments
Want to join the conversation? Please or to comment on this article.