Rwanda Bill: Rishi Sunak insists Tory party 'completely united' as letters of no confidence go in

The Prime Minister won the Rwanda vote, but the battle is far from over

The UK Government passing its controversial Rwanda Bill appears, on paper, a clear win for the Prime Minister.

Unfortunately for Rishi Sunak, that was just one of the hurdles it needed to clear. The legislation still needs to get through the House of Lords unamended, which is no easy task, avoid breaking international law, which the Government isn’t confident over, and then come to pass before the election where Labour would scrap it.

These obstacles all come at a time the Tory party is once again fighting itself. A total of 11 MPs ultimately rebelled over the Bill, and letters of no confidence were submitted on Thursday morning.

Rishi Sunak speaks during a press conference in Downing Street, London, after he saw the Safety of Rwanda Bill pass its third reading.

If that wasn’t enough, Mr Sunak’s popularity is now as low as his predecessor Liz Truss before she was forced to resign. The latest polling shows his party on 20 per cent, which would give Sir Keir Starmer a win bigger than former Labour leader Sir Tony Blair in 1997.

It is with this backdrop the Prime Minister held a press conference on Thursday morning, where instead of announcing anything, he instead used a speech to take aim at the House of Lords, urging them to pass his legislation as quickly as possible and without amendments. Given how long the Lords spent trying to oppose Brexit, his calls are likely to fall on deaf ears.

This is the first great problem for Mr Sunak. He is bringing a legally questionable Bill before a chamber full of more moderate Tories. His response is nothing short of desperation.

Following the Boris Johnson playbook, he warned the House of Lords must not “frustrate the will of the people”, adding it was time to “take back control of our borders”. His eggs are all in the Rwanda basket and it could break very easily.

Then there is the matter of party discipline. Mr Sunak told journalists “the Conservative party has come together" and is “completely united”. But the declaration came in a week dozens of his MPs rebelled, and three of them resigned. The PM appears a leader trying to will his narrative into existence, when the reality is letters are going in and his Cabinet colleagues are already positioning themselves to run after the election.

Most importantly, there is the scheduling of the flights themselves, something the Prime Minister has backed himself into a corner over.

He needs them to go this year. But asked if he could guarantee it, or to give a date on when they might go, the Tory leader avoided the question. At a time his MPs want certainty, desire strength and guarantees, Mr Sunak cannot give it to them.

This is the problem with the Rwanda scheme, a policy invented by Mr Johnson, but kept on by Mr Sunak, despite his reservations. Cabinet ministers dislike it, they worry it’s going to bring the Government down, and believe it’s a trap entirely of their own making.

But it’s too late now. The Bill has passed and Mr Sunak has bet his premiership on it. He will have to survive the Lords, international law and his own MPs for it to pay off, with the odds far from in his favour.