Rutherglen and Hamilton West prompts debate over how bold Labour can be as questions remain over strategy

Labour hope the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election result opens up seats they never thought were possible

The Labour party are buoyant following their by-election win in Rutherglen and Hamilton West, but questions remain over strategy.

While Sir Keir Starmer’s party enjoyed a 20 per cent swing in Margaret Ferrier’s old seat, there remains a divide over whether this means sticking with the existing approach, or if it enables the party to be even bolder.

Speaking to party figures in the aftermath, there was not just surprise at the scale of the victory, but a hope it meant seats the party hadn’t expected to be competitive were now in play.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar and the new Labour MP for Rutherglen and Hamilton West Michael Shanks.

Labour candidate Michael Shanks secured 17,845 votes, well ahead of the 8,399 votes returned for his closest rival, the SNP’s Katy Loudon, to secure the seat.

Shadow Scotland secretary Ian Murray told The Scotsman he was “excited, delighted, relieved and exhausted”, and suggested the strategy, criticised by some as too cautious, was working.

He said: “It’s not changed the strategy, [Scottish Labour leader] Anas’s [Sarwar] strategy has been about addressing concerns of the Scottish people, and what’s resonated the most is the cost-of-living crisis, while opponents use negative campaigns.

“Keir's approach has been realistic and credible. The country has gone through total turmoil in the past 13 years of Tory Government, and 16 under the SNP. What Keir is saying to the country is not stuff we can't deliver or is unrealistic, it’s about trying to be honest with people.

“He’s laid out the significant challenges we have as a country and wants to try and address those with a bold and radical agenda. Now about building up that policy platform, and putting some bones on that mission.”

The Edinburgh South MP admitted the scale of the victory had surprised him, but he wasn’t taking anything for granted, and warned by-election results were not necessarily replicated at a general election.

He said: “We’re going to work hard for every single vote and every single seat. Our strategy doesn’t change, we just double down even harder. We are not complacent, we’ll let others put figures on it. Sir John Curtice talks about 42 seats, some pollsters had us on 44, while I believe some online experts put us in the high 30s.

“We are not going to get carried away, but instead double down on talking to Scottish voters as much as possible.”

The vote was held after Ms Ferrier, who had won the seat in 2019 with a majority of 5,230, had the SNP whip removed after breaching Covid rules back in 2020.

Now one of Scotland’s two Labour MPs, Mr Murray also dismissed the idea that voters were only coming to Labour due to dissatisfaction elsewhere, rather than being excited about voting for Sir Keir’s party.

He said: “People get sick of political parties, the same thing happened with the Tories. They don’t automatically vote for you, but Anas had doubled our support before any of this SNP controversy had happened.

“Unless there’s a positive message and positive leadership, it wouldn’t matter how much trouble your opponents are in, you wouldn’t be able to capitalise on it.”

Other MPs were less cautious, with one telling The Scotsman the result was the most positive by-election of all the party’s gains, after wins including Selby and Ainsty.

They claimed the result showed Labour had won its base back following a “mountain to climb from 2019”, and urged the party to invest in seats it had written off.

The MP said: “I knew we were going to win some seats back, but last night all our WhatsApp groups were saying if we get a 10 per cent swing, it would be great. Then we doubled that, so this means we really are on.

“Seats we didn’t think we could win should be getting more resources, the party should be trying to win back every seat. It’s also given our activists a push where maybe they needed one in seats they’d written off.

“I know we won other by-elections, but this is the first one where that was a properly decisive win, and it’s given us all a buzz. This feels really special.”

The MP suggested it showed people could vote Labour again and expect to win, rather than be a wasted vote in so much of the country.

They said: “By winning so decisively, it gives people that confidence they can vote Labour again. I didn’t just become an MP to be in opposition, this is what it’s about.

“It’s definitely showing the credibility is working, people are seeing us as a credible party”.

However, they suggested having won back votes from the SNP, in a seat that was Labour in 2017, urged the party to be bolder in its policy offering, rather than accepting the best of the rest.

With Labour party conference starting today in Liverpool, they urged the leadership to give people “inspiration” following such a successful result.

The MP said: “More than anything, what I want is for people to want to vote for Labour, that the public see whatever the message is that we are projecting and believe in it, not just support us because they see no alternative. I want people to see that change is coming from Labour.

“I want them to see from Keir, see from the shadow cabinet ‘there is my reason to want to vote Labour’, not just because they feel they’re the less worse option”.

Scottish Labour’s deputy leader Jackie Baillie insisted the party was already expanding its policy platform, and predicted it would win a “majority” of seats in Scotland.

She said: “I think we are quite bold as it is. We are about to go down to our national conference where we will set out how the national policy forums work. That is the foundation for the manifesto. All of that is policy rich, full of ideas, and guides what we would do in Government.

“Did some Tory votes move across to us? Yes. But more interestingly for us, there were people who supported the SNP, who were SNP members, who said the party had lost its way so were coming back to Labour, or voting for us for the first time.”

“John Curticice said last night, 42 [seats], on a uniform swing. I’m not convinced that will reflect the overall picture, but I think we are now looking at the majority of seats in Scotland.”

Another MP warned the party not to read too much into one result, suggesting that would not learn from the Government’s mistake with Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

They said: “It's obviously a vote of confidence for now, which is welcome, but to use it to say we don't need to be bolder and braver I think would be learned helplessness.”

This mood was contrasted by others in Labour who suggested it was a validation of Sir Keir’s strategy, and showed a wider thinking than simply being bold.

One party figure suggested it fit the timetable the Labour leader had set out of detoxifying the party after his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn, prosecuting the argument against the Tories and SNP, before moving into the final phase of showing ‘why Labour’, something they tipped to happen at conference and beyond.

Another argued being more radical now would be “profoundly stupid”, adding it only showed the importance of sticking to the approach so far.

One Labour activist surmised the general mood by stating it showed Labour could win all the seats it was aiming for.

They added: “I feel joyous and ecstatic – it's given us new ambition and belief for the general election next year that all our target seats are now very much in play.”