Revealed: Salmond's strategy for a war of independence

For Nationalists, who have shouted from the sidelines of British politics for so long, it will be a symbolic moment.

The First Minister knows his chances of success in trying to secure a referendum on independence are remote, but that is only part of the reason for today's publication.

Mr Salmond wants to put independence at the forefront of the political debate, and keep it there for the next four years. Today's white paper is the final part of that strategy.

Over the last three months, the First Minister has orchestrated a subtle and highly successful campaign to change the nature of Scottish politics.

When he became First Minister, no-one was sure how long his administration would survive but everyone thought it would be divisive, confrontational and unstable.

Three months on, the SNP has recorded its best poll results ever and Mr Salmond's deft handling of the political agenda has forced a change in Labour's approach to Scotland's constitution.

He has managed to shift the middle ground of Scottish politics. The debate used to be whether or not more powers should be given to the Scottish Parliament: now it is about what powers these should be.

So what has he done, and how has he done it?

It was inevitable that Mr Salmond would try to pick fights with Westminster. His success has come from choosing to fight only the "bankers" - the fights that make him look dignified and Westminster look spiteful.

The most successful was his calculated assault on the UK government when it appeared Tony Blair had agreed a secret deal with Libya that would see the Lockerbie bomber freed.

The claim and counter claim over that have reverberated for so long that no-one really knows now whether a deal was done or not, but what is clear is that Mr Salmond won the news battle.

He has gone for some out-and-out populist moves, like removing tolls on the Forth and Tay bridges, saving casualty departments and announcing the abolition of prescription charges for those with chronic conditions.

These decisions have helped boost the popularity of the government and, on the surface, they seem great. What is uncertain is where the money for them will come from and how long they will take to deliver.

Mr Salmond has been to Belfast, twice, since he became First Minister, aware that a Celtic axis of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will help put pressure on the UK government and could bring concessions.

It is in the interests of the SNP to adopt policies that emphasise the differences between Scotland and England, particularly when it can show how attractive Scotland has become for students, or the elderly or families with children.

The scrapping of the graduate endowment for Scottish students, but leaving it in place for English students studying north of the Border, was the most high-profile of these initiatives but there have been others, including the extension of free nursery provision for all.

These create resentment in England and help convince Scots they are better off with the SNP.

Mr Salmond also took the opportunity of going to Brussels before he went to London, delivering a speech on Scotland's place within Europe.

The pro-European effort is all part of the same agenda, weakening the links with Westminster and strengthening the bonds with Europe, stressing Scotland's place as a contributor to that forum of member states and giving the impression that Mr Salmond is Gordon Brown's equal, not his subordinate.

One move, which could prove one of the most influential, but has not been widely publicised, is the start of the process to give Scotland its own civil service, independent of Whitehall.

One of the final parts of Mr Salmond's strategy only became clear last week when he announced the creation of a Scottish Broadcasting Commission, to examine the future of the industry.

In doing so, he shifted the emphasis from his Executive to an independent commission, which will almost certainly bemoan a lack of investment and call for more autonomy.

Even if it does not go as far as that, it will have stimulated a debate which has been dormant in Scotland for ten years and added fuel to nationalist arguments.

The language of Scottish politics has also changed since Mr Salmond arrived in Bute House. The Scottish Executive is becoming the Scottish Government, ministers have become Cabinet Secretaries and the finance department may soon become the Scottish Treasury.

At the same time, Mr Salmond has talked a lot about consensus, about how well he is working with Mr Brown, particularly at moments of national crisis: indeed, the Glasgow airport attack and the foot-and-mouth outbreak just added to this impression, with the First Minister liaising, apparently as an equal with the Prime Minister and his emergency team in London.

He has talked about inclusion and compromise while driving ahead with as many SNP policies as he can without legislation.

And finally today, as the last act of this production, the First Minister is publishing a white paper on an independence referendum.

It, too, will talk of consensus, of "conversation" and of inclusion but, like everything else that has been done by the Scottish Executive over the past three months, the real agenda is independence.

The unfolding of Mr Salmond's programme has been a lesson in the politics of message and agenda- setting for everyone at Holyrood.

Scotland can expect more of the same for the next four years.

10 commandments to shift separatism to centre ground

1 PICK fights with Westminster: Salmond has chosen his battles carefully, taking on Westminster only when it will have the right impact such as the row over Tony Blair's so-called "secret deal" with Gaddafi.

2 OPT for some easy moves to win widespread public support: headline-grabbing early announcements included the scrapping of bridge tolls and the saving of casualty departments picked for closure.

3 ACTIVELY court Wales and Northern Ireland: seeking areas of co-operation so all three can demand changes from Westminster with more power.

4 OUT-MANOEUVRE the Labour Party: Mr Salmond has managed to shift the political agenda from a discussion on whether Holyrood should get more powers to what those powers should be.

5 TAKING decisions to make Scotland as attractive as possible, compared to England: scrapping the graduate endowment and increasing free nursery provision.

6 EMPHASISING Scotland's place as a nation within Europe: Alex Salmond went to Brussels to make a speech before he went to London as First Minister.

7 CUTTING the size of government and starting the process of making Scotland's civil service independent of Whitehall.

8 SETTING up a broadcasting commission to look into the future of an issue which is outwith Holyrood's control.

9 CHANGING the language and culture of government: sending ministers to communicate with the public, talking about consensus and showing Scots have government of equals with Westminster.

10 PUBLISHING white paper on independence: starting a national debate on the issue of Scotland's future.

Brown U-turn as three unionist parties issue joint statement in bid to head off SNP

GORDON Brown has agreed to consider a review of the devolution settlement in a bid to head off SNP demands for independence, writes Hamish Macdonell.

The Prime Minister has given his backing to a joint statement which commits all three of the main unionist parties to a "debate" about the way devolution could develop over the coming years, it emerged last night.

The statement represents a major shift in policy for the Labour Party, which went into this year's Holyrood election opposing any increase in the powers of the Scottish Parliament.

But the election defeat, and the way in which Alex Salmond has forced the debate on the constitution, has persuaded Labour leaders to make the change.

A spokesman for Mr Salmond hailed the move as a "fundamental shift in the axis of Scottish politics", and claimed "the tectonic plates are shifting".

But Labour leaders adopted a different approach, insisting the SNP was now isolated, with no chance of gaining parliamentary support for independence.

Labour's conversion to the possibility of enhancing the Scottish Parliament's powers started two weeks ago, when it became clear that Mr Salmond intended to publish a white paper on independence with the aim of starting a "national conversation" on Scotland's future.

The leaders of Scotland's three main unionist parties - Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives - came together to discuss a joint approach against independence plans.

With the Liberal Democrats committed to increased powers for the parliament and the Tories supporting a review ten years after devolution - in 2008-09 - Labour leaders had no option but to accept the need for at least a debate on Scotland's future.

The result was a long statement, issued yesterday and approved by the UK and Scottish leaders of all three parties, which commits all of them to oppose independence.

Most of the statement is taken up with condemnations of the SNP's desire for independence but, significantly, it does not commit the parties to oppose Mr Salmond's referendum plans when they come before the parliament.

And its two final paragraphs pave the way for a full review of devolution.

It states: "We are willing to enter into debate jointly about the way in which devolution within the UK can best develop in the years to come and we believe colleagues in Westminster have a role to play in that debate. Before the Scottish Parliament reconvenes we will discuss together the best way to take forward this debate."

Jack McConnell, the Scottish Labour leader, explained the policy U-turn yesterday by claiming that now was the right time to have a review of devolution.

He said: "Labour has taken a flexible approach on powers when it was right to do so over the past eight years.

"It is now ten years since the referendum and a very appropriate point at which to have a debate, but a debate about devolution inside the UK. Politically and tactically, the SNP now has a problem."

Mr Salmond, who will today launch his white paper on an independence referendum, was delighted that he had managed to prompt his opponents into such a move, even before his white paper is published.

A spokesman for the First Minister said: "The tectonic plates of Scottish politics are shifting. The position of refusing to countenance more powers for Scotland, which Labour stuck rigidly to in the election, is now totally untenable.

"We welcome that those who were unwilling to talk about progress for Scotland before the election, particularly Labour, now recognise that the election marked a fundamental shift in the axis of Scottish politics."

The statement does represent a step-change in Scottish politics, but comes with no guarantee of any concrete changes to the devolution settlement, at least for the foreseeable future.

What it does do, however, is acknowledge the groundswell of opinion in all the main parties that the status quo at Holyrood is no longer an option in the long term.

ANALYSIS

So why the awkward Labour volte-face?

WHOEVER drew up the Labour Party's new policy on devolution, it wasn't Des Browne.

The Scottish Secretary told a Commons committee just last month that, as far as he was concerned, "devolution was an event, not a process".

As of yesterday, that view was consigned to the dustbin. The Labour Party now backs the idea of a review of devolution to see what changes need to be made and which new powers the Scottish Parliament should get.

The new policy was endorsed by Gordon Brown and announced yesterday by Jack McConnell, the outgoing Scottish Labour leader.

It is understood that Mr McConnell was the driving force behind the new policy approach - despite leading his party into this year's election on a platform of "no change" at Holyrood.

Mr McConnell has backed more power for the parliament in the past and has shown his willingness to take on his counterparts at Westminster when he feels it is in Scotland's interests.

Indeed, it was suggested last night that Mr McConnell was trying to leave his party a "legacy" of a new policy initiative and an approach to the constitution which would give it the ammunition it needs to fight the Nationalists.

Either way, it was also being pointed out that the policy change had been agreed by Wendy Alexander, Margaret Curran, Andy Kerr and Cathy Jamieson: all the senior figures in the party and all those who might succeed Mr McConnell.

The idea is to push the case for more power and undermine the argument for full independence.

However, the fear in some parts of the Labour Party is that, by embracing change, the party may actually hasten the cause of independence and play into Alex Salmond's hands.