Reid's speech cuts odds on leadership bid

Story in full LEADERSHIP, courage, and strength of character. John Reid offered all these things to Labour yesterday in a powerful speech that left many seriously wondering if he, and not Gordon Brown, might yet become their next leader.

The Home Secretary stopped an inch short of openly declaring himself as a candidate to replace Tony Blair, but no-one who heard his speech to the Labour conference, with its five uses of the word "leadership", was in any doubt about Mr Reid's message.

The standing ovation had bookmakers rushing to cut the odds on Mr Reid becoming Labour's next leader, installing him as second-favourite.

Yet despite the flurry of excitement the speech generated, the Home Secretary's aides were last night insisting that he is doing nothing more than getting on with his government job, continuing with a strategy that amounts to campaigning by not campaigning.

Despite impressing with his speech, Mr Reid today does not have the support among MPs, trade unions or party members to mount an effective challenge. But his friends say that the longer Mr Blair stays in office and postpones a leadership battle, the more likely it is that the Home Secretary will be able and willing to declare his candidacy.

Until then, by being seen to focus relentlessly on crime, security and immigration, Mr Reid hopes that his stature among voters will rise, even as doubts grow among Labour members about Mr Brown's ability to beat the Tories.

The Home Secretary mounted a robust defence of his record in government, vowing "no compromise" with Muslim extremists and more deportations of terror suspects.

But Mr Reid also ranged far beyond the Home Office brief yesterday, tackling foreign policy, community relations, the notion of Britishness and, above all, leadership.

"In this age of uncertainty, people should feel able to turn to us under the pressures of modern life," he said. "Not for empty promises, but for leadership, and courage and strength of character."

Mr Reid taunted Mr Cameron as weak and indecisive. "The public may understand that he doesn't want to rush to judgment on every issue, but he has to be capable of making some decisions. That is what leadership is about."

In perhaps the most surprising success of the speech, he even drew a round of applause for his qualified defence of Mr Blair's foreign policy and staunch support for the US. "You don't have to love everything George W Bush stands for to hate everything that Osama bin Laden stands for," Mr Reid said.

He quoted John F Kennedy, the US president assassinated in 1963, saying that faced with the terror threat, "we have to be prepared to bear any burden, pay any price, face any foe and support any friend to ensure the protection and survival of liberty".

As a veteran of Labour's 1980s infighting, Mr Reid has no shortage of enemies. But yesterday he managed to turn that animosity into a joke. Roy Hattersley, the former Labour deputy leader, has written that he will shoot himself if Mr Reid becomes leader. "Until Roy said that, I hadn't been able to see any advantages in standing," Mr Reid said, delighting delegates. Mr Blair has repeatedly refused to endorse Mr Brown as his successor and name-checked Mr Reid in his valedictory speech on Tuesday. The Prime Minister was among the first to stand and applaud Mr Reid yesterday.

Charlie Falconer, the Lord Chancellor and a close friend of Mr Blair, last night repeatedly refused to back Mr Brown.

"John is in the zone," said one Cabinet minister. "It's still Gordon's to lose, but if he slips, John could have a shot."

Still, some of Mr Brown's allies were dismissing Mr Reid's speech, predicting that he will serve under Mr Brown as Foreign Secretary.

But there were signs Mr Reid had sown doubts in the minds of some of Mr Brown's supporters. One trade unionist described the speech as "disturbingly good, brilliant even". And a Brown- supporting MP said the address was "the speech Gordon should have given".

Elsewhere in Mr Reid's speech, he said anti-terror police, MI5 and MI6 could be shaken up in a review of security. He also promised a fresh bid to outlaw forced marriages and floated the idea that violent offenders should pay towards the healthcare of victims.

After Mr Reid's comments on terror, the former Foreign Secretary Jack Straw last night admitted the situation in Iraq is "dire" and blamed US "errors".

Reid v Brown

Reid

• Polls say John Reid's steely resolve in the face of Muslim extremism and the terrorist threat plays extremely well with voters.

• As an ardent Blairite and reformer, Reid may be able to win the public support of high-profile figures, possibly even the Prime Minister.

• A relative unknown, Reid may be able to persuade the Labour Party he can offer the "renewal in government" it needs before the next election.

• Reid has a lack of any real political base among Labour MPs or trade unions. And a host of enemies, too.

• A youthful background as a paid-up Communist and heavy drinker (although he is now teetotal) may count against him, as could his days as a backroom fixer in the Scottish Labour Party.

• What some see as an excessively macho style could put off women voters.

Brown

• Delivering ten years of economic growth and stability as Britain's longest-serving Chancellor.

• A massive political base with scores of supportive MPs, trade unions and other allies, including a fanatically loyal inner circle.

• Could yet finally heal his rift with Tony Blair and win the Prime Minister's endorsement.

• After ten years as heir apparent, he could look too old and tired to reinvigorate the Labour Party.

• A failed attempt to oust Tony Blair earlier this month left him dangerously vulnerable to accusations of disloyalty and plotting.

• Even colleagues have doubts that his persona as a grim and controlling figure will appeal to swing voters.