Exclusive:Reform local elections: What the results and the dominance of Nigel Farage's party means for Scotland and SNP

The defeat at the hands of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK in the Runcorn & Helsby by-election completed a bad night for Labour.

Labour losing votes to Reform in the local election and by-election will give the SNP renewed confidence the party is heading for another win in Holyrood, pollsters have suggested.

Nigel Farage said his party had eaten “Labour for lunch” and “wiped out” the Conservatives in parts of England. His party took control of seven local councils, winning hundreds of seats across localities from Durham to Kent and toppled a 14,000-strong Labour majority in a parliamentary by-election.

While Labour lost the race to for a new MP in Runcorn and Helsby, the Conservatives were bruised in local government, as Mr Farage’s party took control of Staffordshire, Lincolnshire, Kent, Nottinghamshire, Lancashire and Derbyshire.

The Lib Dems have also made gains at the Tories’ expense in Devon, becoming the largest party on the council, while the Conservatives also lost control in Warwickshire amid a Reform surge.

Nigel Farage (left) and Sarah Pochin of the Reform Party speak to members of the media as a vote recount is conducted during the Runcorn and Helsby by-election. Picture: Anthony Devlin/Getty Images | Getty Images

Experts have now claimed the results will send a “shockwave” through British politics and claimed Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar had an uphill battle to become first minister at next year’s Scottish election.

The result in Runcorn came as Reform made gains against both Labour and the Conservatives across England in local votes. Mr Farage described the electoral triumph as a “big moment” taking place in UK politics.

Former Conservative minister Dame Andrea Jenkyns was elected for Reform UK as the first Greater Lincolnshire mayor with a majority of almost 40,000 over her former party.

Discussing the results, Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, told The Scotsman if Labour’s collapse in support was replicated in Scotland, the SNP would win the election.

Professor Sir John Curtice has an important message about how to restore the public's trust in politics and democracy (Picture: Leon Neal) | Getty Images

He said: “Labour support is well down - and if that happens in Scotland, Anas Sarwar will not be FM. Conservatives are still in the doldrums, so turning around Tory fortunes looks difficult, which all means that the SNP's path to retaining power looks much smoother than 12 months ago.”

On Labour’s collapse in the English local elections, Sir John told the BBC: “It is Labour's good fortune that it is defending fewer than 300 seats in the local council elections. Even so, and in contrast to the mayoral outcomes, the party has so far lost over half the seats it was trying to defend, mostly to Reform. Their vote is on average down on a poor performance in 2021 by as much as nine points.”

Pollster Mark Diffley, founder of the Diffley Partnership, said both the SNP and Reform would be delighted with the results.

It comes with both parties set to field candidates at the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election on June 5, being held following the death in March of local MSP and Scottish Government minister Christina McKelvie.

Mr Diffley said: “If we take the four big parties in Scotland, the parties who will be most pleased will be Reform in Scotland, because they don’t poll as well as in the rest of the UK. But the level of support down south means they will feel pretty confident ahead of next year, and ahead of making inroads at the Hamilton by-election, which they taking very seriously.

“Another party quite satisfied, though they wouldn’t say it, is the SNP. As our poll yesterday showed, Reform votes are coming primarily from Labour and the Conservatives in terms of how people voted at the general election.

“It does make their task at Hamilton easier, and it does mean that if these polling trends continue, then the SNP will feel more confident about next year’s Holyrood election.”

Mr Diffley was speaking as a new poll showed the SNP comfortably ahead of Scottish Labour in the run-up to next May’s Holyrood election.

The Survation survey, carried out on behalf of Diffley Partnership, found 36 per cent of people were planning to vote for John Swinney’s party on the constituency section of the ballot, with 28 per cent saying they would support the SNP on the regional list section of the vote.

Support for Mr Sarwar’s Scottish Labour was at 22 per cent on both the constituency and the regional list ballot, the poll found.

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A total of 1,005 Scots were asked about how they intended to vote, with the polling taking place between April 16 and 22.

Mr Diffley said Thursday was a bad night for both the Labour and the Tories, with the results a “shockwave” that would also be felt in Scotland.

He said: “The two parties most concerned are Labour and the Tories, both of whom have taken a bit of a hammering. At the local council level, it is the Tories who are going to see the most losses, because the seats up for grabs were mainly Conservative seats.

“Although Labour have held on in some areas, they’ve held on by the skin of their teeth, mainly in the face of Reform, and Reform won the Lincolnshire mayoralty, so have made a breakthrough at that level as well.

“Although primarily people will be thinking ‘what does it mean for English local government’, the shockwaves of last night will be felt in Scotland as well.

“It does make the SNP’s life easier. Whether Reform continues to perform well next year is not yet clear. They are securing significant gains and if that’s translated into Holyrood election, they will probably have double-digit MSPs, which will be pretty significant in terms of the power they will have at Holyrood, which is likely to be a minority parliament, and help at things like committees.

“The tone and make-up of Holyrood is likely to change from what we’re used to for the last quarter century.”

Commenting on the rise of Mr Farage's Reform Party in the English local elections, SNP Westminster Leader Stephen Flynn said: "Britain is broken. Let’s build something better as an independent nation.

"With Nigel Farage smashing his way through Labour Party strongholds in England, and the Tories cowering at his every word, it’s never been more vital for the Scottish public to show courage and take control of our own destiny.

"The UK political establishment told Scotland that Brexit would never happen, Boris Johnson would never be prime minister and the Labour Party would never deliver austerity cuts. Now they will tell us they can stop Farage holding power.

"The brutal reality is that Keir Starmer promised change, but instead he has delivered a series of broken promises that have betrayed the hopes and expectations of voters in Scotland. Enough is enough."

Speaking to reporters during a visit to Bedfordshire on Friday following the result, Sir Keir said: “What I want to say is, my response is we get it.

“We were elected in last year to bring about change.”

He said that his party has “started that work”, such as bringing in measures to cut NHS waiting lists, adding: “I am determined that we will go further and faster on the change that people want to see.”

Labour MPs including Diane Abbott and Brian Leishman publicly called on the Government to change course following the Runcorn result, arguing that voters had wanted an end to austerity but faced further cuts.

Elsewhere, Kemi Badenoch told Conservative councillors who have lost their seats she is “sincerely sorry” and that while the public are “fed up” with Labour, they are not yet ready to trust the Tories.