Reform lead the UK polls - and it was the Conservatives who created the 'monster'

Who could have possibly predicted this?

Reform is leading the UK polls and the Tories should be worried. This was not a one-off blip, an outlier by some mad unreliable pollster, but the steady growth of a party here to devour the Conservatives.

It has happened in part due to the struggles of the incoming Labour government, but it is far more down to consecutive Tory leaders failing to match their rhetoric with what they actually do. Leaders since David Cameron complained about immigration, encouraged fears about immigration, and indulged in the worst narratives about immigration, creating Ukip, the Brexit party, Reform, as well enemies in their own party.

Theresa May, Boris Johnson, the lettuce and Rishi Sunak all lamented the rising number of people coming to Britain, perhaps forgetting it was on their watch, and they had promised a solution to a fringe they then made mainstream.

The absurdity of the Tory stance was crystallised this week when Priti Patel, who was UK home secretary for three years, sought to defend her party’s record, claiming the new points-based system had allowed the government to control the flow of immigration based on "what our economy needs and what it doesn't need". She said many people came to the UK on health and social care visas, adding: "Are we now saying we don't need those people in our NHS?".

Here lies the problem. Immigration is essential to the UK. It enriches us, sure, but it also brings crucial workers. But that wasn’t the argument the Tories made. It was about bringing numbers down. Refusing to apologise during the interview, the host openly laughed at Ms Patel and it was later shared by Reform on social media.

Leader of the Conservative Party, Kemi Badenoch, has to change the narrative

By failing to make this positive case for immigration, rejecting the international conservatism that made the party popular, they have created a monster, one that does not care about points systems or the best and brightest, and just wants to close the gates entirely. Having leaned into this ideology, fed it, nurtured it and seen it grow, Reform is now here to take the Tories lunch. Conservative party leader Kemi Badenoch can rant and wave about a lack of policy, but that isn’t what has drawn people to Reform.

Right-wing voters were told they could be more right-wing, being anti-immigration was encouraged and the Tories should not be surprised. To dismiss Reform now is saying “I never thought leopards would eat MY face”.

As to how to fix it, that would need a longer column, and perhaps a time machine to undo the fuel so liberally, ironically, poured on the fire. The only real hope is to offer solutions and, perhaps, however embarrassing, a softer stance on Europe.

Ms Badenoch cherishes her new line about Sir Keir Starmer being a “lawyer, not a leader”, and this is one area where she can lead, if Labour don’t. Reject the anti-immigration narrative. Ignore the feral hatred on social media.

Instead, find a modern angle, one that does not indulge the idea of “legitimate concerns” over immigration. One that is compassionate about the reasons why people flee here. Make Britain an open, modern, safe haven where immigrants boost our economy and keep the country going.

Reform was created by the Tories. It’s time to put the genie back in the bottle, if they still can.