Professor Sir John Curtice: 'Worrying night' for the Conservatives as Labour make huge election gains

Chris Webb celebrates his win at the Blackpool South by-election with his wife Portia Webb and 11 week old baby Cillian Douglas Webb. Photo: Kelvin Lister-Stuttard

Labour have made huge gains in the elections in England and Wales in a bruising night for the Conservatives

The Conservatives are suffering bruising defeats across the elections in England and Wales, losing an MP and hundreds of councillors.

Overnight Labour won the Blackpool South by-election with a huge 26 per cent swing from the Conservatives, and have gained control of numerous councils.

Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice says the results make “difficult reading” for the Conservative Party, and show the predictions they haven’t been able to close the gap with Labour are now coming true. 

Professor Curtice said: “The results of Thursday’s local elections make difficult reading for the Conservatives.

“Some losses were inevitable - most of the seats being elected yesterday were previously contested in May 2021.

“Then, the Conservatives were six points ahead of Labour in the national polls - now they are 20 points behind.

“But the scale of their losses so far will worry the Conservatives.

“In the overnight counts, they have lost half of the council seats they were trying to defend.”

He added: “Not least of the reasons why the party’s losses are proving to be so high is that the party is losing ground most heavily in wards where it was previously strongest - while Labour have been advancing most strongly in wards where they started off second to the Conservatives.

“Even more discouraging for the Conservatives, the results confirm the message of the opinion polls that the party has failed to close the gap on Labour over the last 12 months.”

The Conservative to Labour swing is the third biggest in a by-election since 1945 and the seventh by-election defeat for the party since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister.

Sir Keir Starmer’s Party overturned a 3,690 majority to gain the seat, which was previously held by Labour between 1997 and 2019.

The by-election was triggered by the resignation of former Conservative MP Scott Benton, who was suspended from the party.

The Conservatives narrowly avoided being pushed into third place by Reform UK - the Reform candidate Mark Butcher won 3,101 votes compared to 3,218 votes for the Conservative candidate David Jones.

Sir Keir said it is a “seismic win” for Chris Webb and “the most important result of the night”.

He added: “This is the one contest where voters had the chance to send a message to Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives directly, and that message is an overwhelming vote for change.

“The message to Rishi Sunak is clear - it’s time for change, it’s time for a general election.”

Meanwhile Conservative Deputy Chairwoman Angela Richardson said the result was “not unexpected”, and added: “I think, given the circumstances that caused the by-election in the first place, it was always going to be difficult for the Conservatives.”

Meanwhile Labour has also made gains in the local council elections south of the border, including in areas they hope to win at the next general election.

Labour won key target councils including Hartlepool, Thurrock, Rushmoor and Redditch, but suffered heavy losses in areas with high Muslim populations.

The Greens had a good night by winning their first ever councillors and the Lib Dems have gained 17 council seats so far.