Poll: Support for Scottish independence and the Union both at 50%

A new poll has found support for and against independence in now evenly split.
A new poll has found support for and against independence in now evenly split.
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A new opinion poll on voting intention in a second Scottish independence referendum has both the “yes” and “no” camps on 50 per cent each.

The Survation poll, carried out on behalf of Progress Scotland, the pro-independence think tank, also gives the SNP a majority in next year’s Holyrood elections.

The new poll comes just a week after a YouGov survey saw “yes” inch into a slight lead on 51 per cent, with many Remain voters in the EU referendum switching from “no” to back independence as a result of Brexit.

READ MORE: Poll in five years shows majority of Scots want independence

However it also found that one in ten were undecided on how they would vote in a new referendum, and just over four per cent said they wouldn’t vote at all.

Carried out nine days before Brexit, the poll of 1,019 people aged 16 and over, was conducted through an invited online panel. It found that 44.37 per cent would vote “yes” in a referendum, with 43.76 per cent voting no, but when the undecideds were excluded, both sides were neck and neck.

SNP depute leader Keith Brown said the poll was “fantastic” for the “Yes movement” adding that “momentum” was behind independence.

“Scotland has been dragged out of the EU against our will by a Tory government and Prime Minister that we didn’t vote for – and who are undemocratically trying to block the people of Scotland having their say in a referendum,” he said.

“But that position is unsustainable – ultimately the people of Scotland will have the chance to escape Boris Johnson’s Brexit Britain and choose a better future as an independent European nation.

“The case for independence grows stronger by the day. The longer Boris Johnson tries to ignore the SNP’s democratic mandate the more support for independence will continue to grow.”

Pamela Nash, chief executive of Scotland in Union, said the poll showed how many Scots were still undecided. “With one-in-ten Scots undecided, this poll is a reminder to those of us who believe in solidarity and oppose division that we must continue to make the positive case for remaining in the UK every day,” she said.

“We know the overwhelming majority of people in Scotland don’t want a divisive second independence referendum this year, but Nicola Sturgeon is ramping up her campaign in a desperate bid to deflect from the SNP’s failings in office.

“She should stop trying to divide Scotland and focus on fixing the public services her government has run into the ground. Scotland deserves better.”

On people’s voting intention in the 2021 Holyrood election, the poll put the SNP on 51 per cent, the Conservatives on 23 per cent, Labour 17 per cent, and the Liberal Democrats on seven per cent in the constituency vote; and in the regional list, the SNP won 38 per cent, Conservatives 21 per cent, Labour 19 per cent, Scottish Greens and Liberal Democrats on nine per cent each.