Pilot of ‘transformative’ minimum income proposed after Scottish election

An expert group commissioned by ministers has set out a “road map” to implementing a minimum income guarantee in Scotland, saying it will be a “fundamental change to the social contract”.

The group of charities, campaigners and academics say there should be a pilot of the policy following next year’s Holyrood election.

A minimum income guarantee would establish an income level below which nobody is allowed to fall, through reform to social security, work, and services.

In a suite of recommendations, the group says the Scottish child payment should be doubled to £55 per week by 2031 and sanctions in the welfare system should be effectively ended.

They say an interim minimum income payment could be established by 2036, in line with the relative poverty level.

A homeless person and their dog on the Royal Mile in Edinburgh | PA

Some of the group’s welfare changes would cost £671 million per year by 2030/31, in today’s prices.

However these would require just over £300 million of additional spending if the UK Government scraps the two-child limit and ends the five-week wait for universal credit, the group said.

The costs have led the Conservatives to describe the policy as “bizarre and unaffordable”.

Work on a minimum income guarantee was first committed to in the Scottish Government’s 2021 legislative programme, under Nicola Sturgeon’s tenure as first minister.

Russell Gunson from the Robertson Trust chaired the expert group.

He said: “A minimum income guarantee could be transformative, putting in place a universal guarantee that’s there for everyone in Scotland.

“Given the levels of poverty and inequality we see, we must act urgently.

“With technological change and an ageing population, we need to build security for all to make sure we can take the economic opportunities in front of Scotland.

“A minimum income guarantee could future-proof Scotland.”

‘Affordable and doable’

Addressing questions about the affordability, Mr Gunson added: “The first steps we set out over the next five years are affordable in the current context, and doable within existing powers.

“We can’t wait – and we don’t need to wait – to begin to make the changes outlined in this report.

“We know poverty, inequality, and insecurity costs us dearly in financial terms and in lost potential.”

However Conservative finance spokesman Craig Hoy was dismissive of the proposal.

He said: “The SNP have made no serious attempt to rein in wasteful public spending and a soaring welfare bill. Now this report shows that a minimum income guarantee would cost billions – when Scottish taxpayers are already footing the bill for spending that is simply unsustainable and unaffordable.

Recommendations include doubling the Scottish child payment to £55 per week by 2031

“The SNP’s existing plans involve benefits spending £2 billion higher than other parts of the country by the end of the decade – and it’s Scottish workers that will be saddled with the cost, when they are already paying the highest rates of tax in the UK.

“The SNP should immediately rule out this bizarre and unaffordable policy and reverse their reckless spending plans.”

Social Justice Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville said the Government would consider the group’s report and respond in due course.

She said: “The legacy of the financial crash, Brexit, and more than 10 years of UK Government austerity has meant that living standards across the UK are stagnating – pushing households further from an acceptable standard of living.

“We are already taking action in a number of the areas highlighted by the Group, while operating within the limits of the devolution settlement and responsible management of the public finances.

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“This includes providing the Scottish Child Payment, which is only available in Scotland and which it is forecast will support the families of around 330,000 children this year.

“Meanwhile as the UK Government refuses to act to end the Universal Credit two-child limit, the Scottish Government has committed to ending this limit next year.”

She continued: “The Scottish Government is of course committed to ensuring that finances remain on a sustainable trajectory.

“We will continue to take forward our programme of work for doing this, which will be updated in the next Medium-Term Financial Strategy to be published later this month, alongside our fiscal sustainability delivery plan.

“We have no plans to change tax policy in Scotland to finance a Minimum Income Guarantee.”