One year of Keir Starmer's Labour: What Anas Sarwar needs to do to get Scottish election hopes back on track

Anas Sarwar will need a change in mood at Westminster to deliver on his hopes of power.

It was meant to be the first of a two-pronged blueprint for Labour to return to power. But as Anas Sarwar and Scottish Labour catch their breathe before what will be a relentless push to next year’s Holyrood election, it is clear that 12 months of Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister has threatened to leave those hopes of completing the job in tatters.

One year ago, Sir Keir resoundingly swept to power with Scotland playing a key role. Overnight, the SNP argument that Scotland had a UK government it didn’t vote for turned to dust.

Scottish Labour leader with Prime Minister Keir Starmer | Getty Images

But since Labour entered power at Westminster, it has become clear that large swathes of the support Mr Sarwar enjoyed in the lead-up to that general election 12 months ago has abandoned him and his party.

What Sarwar has said

Mr Sarwar told me he has no regrets over the change in government at Westminster, despite its impact on his chances of becoming first minister.

READ MORE: John Swinney's first year as FM was defined by opponents' mistakes - now he's on his own

He said: “I’ve always been of the view that there’s no route to a Scottish Labour government that didn’t involve getting rid of the Tories, electing a UK Labour government and starting to see progress made in our country.

“Huge progress has been made, but there’s huge more work to do.”

The Scottish Labour leader said that what really exercises voters is matters like GP appointments, education standards, and feeling safe and secure in their community - all the responsibility of Holyrood. His chances of success hinge on those devolved issues motivating an increasingly-exasperated electorate.

READ MORE: 'Rewiring of state' demanded to fix SNP's £5bn funding hole as John Swinney facing 'leadership crisis'

Mr Sarwar acknowledged that SNP figures will do all they can to frame next year’s election as “a protest election about the rights and wrongs of a UK Labour government”, whereas he insists “the reality is, who the Scottish Government is, really matters”.

What the Scottish Labour leader is yet to do is convince Scots he would treat those issues any differently.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar | Jane Barlow/PA Wire

Are Labour voters switching to the SNP?

Scottish Labour insiders have repeatedly stressed that voters are not switching to the SNP, but those swing voters who agreed to back the party last year to remove the Conservatives from power, have gone back to undecided voters when asked by pollsters.

While that may be true, there is no guarantee those voters will back Labour next year simply to remove the SNP from office. Worryingly for Mr Sarwar, the reason why so many who voted for his party last year are now experiencing buyer’s remorse is glaringly obvious.

Labour promised “change”. It was a simple and effective message after the frantic mayhem at the hands of the Conservatives. Sir Keir pledged to “end the chaos” - an ambition people bought into.

READ MORE: Hamilton by-election results: 'Game on' for Labour to snatch Holyrood power from SNP

But just weeks into power, Labour Chancellor Rachel Reeves set out the gloomiest of economic backdrops, with incredibly unpopular decisions made.

For good reason, new governments talk up the economy when they enter office - it gives the markets confidence that things are looking up under new management.

Although Labour could not shy away from the £22 billion funding gap left by their predecessors, not in recent memory has a government struck such a dire assessment of the country’s prospects and ultimately espoused a perception those in charge had no grasp on how to turn things around and live up to the billing of “change”.

Public mood ‘misunderstood’

One Scottish Labour MP told me “the public mood was somewhat misunderstood”, adding “they wanted 1997 and we weren’t in a position to deliver on that straight away”.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar with the new intake of Scottish Labour MPs outside no 10 Downing Street.

But that public frustration has hammered Mr Sarwar - and thrown his chances of becoming first minister into turmoil.

The Scottish Tories can tell Labour a thing or two about what it’s like to have all the focus on an unpopular UK government. One senior Scottish Conservative MSP told me that during the Boris Johnson saga, there was “no escaping it”.

Some within Scottish Labour have also been left irritated by a “failure to sell” the positive things Sir Keir’s administration has done in its first year in office. But in simple terms, the public couldn’t give a monkeys about huge investment in clean power and GB Energy while household bills remain sky high.

READ MORE: Revealed: How Labour hopes its clean power strategy will bring down Scots' bills by 2030

It has been those who have shouldered the difficult choices made by the Chancellor that has left many, including several Labour MPs, completely scunnered. In recent weeks, it has become apparent the Labour leadership is fighting fires ad-hoc - with screeching U-turns and backbench rebellions tearing a hole in the Prime Minister’s authority.

Labour’s fall in the polls has coincided in a surge in popularity of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and Sir Keir has, rather blatantly, been pandering to those voters. It is impossible to out-Reform Reform and being hard on immigration and disability benefits has only further vexed many of those who voted for a Labour government.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage. Photo: Jeff Moore/PA Wire

Polling has revealed Labour has potentially lost more voters to left-leaning parties than they have to Reform - a damning assessment of how poorly Sir Keir’s team have faced down the threat from Mr Farage. Regardless, Mr Sarwar will face a threat at the ballot box from Reform that will add to his woes.

The countdown is on

There is still nine months until voters choose the next Scottish government. As things stand, the SNP is on course to be the largest party at Holyrood. Labour’s hopes rest on being able to take enough seats off the SNP and forming some sort of unionist coalition that would freeze out Mr Swinney from power. That is not without problems and is still a long shot.

But there are green shoots of hope for Labour. Being able to squeeze ahead of both the SNP and Reform in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election last month showed the party can still win in the Central Belt.

Scottish Labour celebrate victory in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election | Lisa Ferguson

Despite the confidence espoused by Mr Sarwar in the fallout of that victory, the margin was so narrow that if it is repeated across Scotland next year, Labour will likely fall short of what’s required and Mr Sarwar would be out of his job.

If Scottish Labour is to revive its hopes of ousting the SNP, it will need a big helping hand from the UK government. The Chancellor has handed Scotland a record funding settlement, but more good news will be needed.

But what is ultimately required is a shift in perception that Labour in government can do good things. That is, after all, why people backed Labour last year - and the only reason why Scots will consider supporting Mr Sarwar next year.