Nicola Sturgeon will survive and Boris Johnson will likely not despite Covid breaches

It is hard to see how Boris Johnson can survive the ongoing Partygate scandal without it ending with his resignation.

By comparison, it is much easier to see Nicola Sturgeon hold on to her job despite being filmed breaking face mask rules for the second time.

In politics there is the belief that apologising is usually a mistake and certainly something to be used sparingly.

It is telling how much apologies crop up in the contributions of Nicola Sturgeon and other ministers in the Holyrood chamber.

Critics have suggested Nicola Sturgeon should resign for breaching face mask rules.

They are often used to accept responsibility both for the failing and the necessary solution, shutting down opposition criticism as opportunistic rather than constructive.

On face mask breaches, the apologies have been swift and self-deprecating, allowing the First Minister to acknowledge the mistake, appear to understand the anger, and move on.

This is the central reason why the Partygate scandal has hurt Mr Johnson far more than either of Ms Sturgeon’s two face mask mistakes.

In Downing Street, evidence mounted of rule-breaking but was shut down by politicians as simply not true.

There were no parties, there was no breach of Covid-19 regulations.

The UK Government was asking people to deny the evidence in front of them.

This dishonesty or, if you believe the Prime Minister, sheer ignorance of the rules was then further undermined by months of denials and disingenuity.

Police officers were forced to intervene due to political pressure and public outrage and have so far issued more than 50 fines to those in Downing Street.

Fundamentally, the First Minister was saved by Police Scotland’s almost universal preference for a stern advisory word around face mask rules.

In the same way, Johnson was doomed by the Metropolitan Police's heavy-handedness around public gatherings during lockdown – most notably at the vigil for Sarah Everard.

Helpfully for Ms Sturgeon, during the last six months of last year Police Scotland handed out just one fine for someone failing to wear a mask.

In comparison, across the UK, thousands of people were fined for breaching lockdown rules around gatherings and parties.

If Police Scotland had issued Ms Sturgeon with a fine, the First Minister would have had no option other than to resign.

Therein lies the difference, and why one’s resignation is inevitable and why the other will easily survive.

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