It’s fair to say that Sir Keir Starmer hasn’t had a great 2026 so far, with questions being raised about his leadership less than two years after winning a historic general election landslide.
There was Labour’s third place in the Gorton and Denton byelection behind the victorious Green Party and Reform, which came just a couple of weeks after Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar called for the leader to step down.
That was a clear warning sign of what would come in last month’s elections, which saw Labour lose control in Wales, slump to joint second with Reform UK in Scotland, and lose a string of English councils.
The Prime Minister has also suffered the scandal linking former British Ambassador to the United States Lord Mandelson to financier sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
It means that there is now huge speculation about who will succeed Sir Keir when he eventually stands aside - or is forcibly removed - from office.
And that will be doubly so should Andy Burnham - as is expected - wins tomorrow’s (Thursday, June 18) Makerfield by-election and becomes eligible to challenge for the leadership of both the Labour Party and the country.
Here are the 10 most likely candidates to become the next Prime Minister according to the bookies.
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1. Andy Burnham - 2/9
Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham is a hugely popular figure with both Labour MPs and voters and has indicated that he wants the top job. The one problem is that he's not an MP so needs to win a byelection first - something he's aiming to do this week. If he wins it seems inevitable that he will challenge the Prime Minister. It means the bookies have him as the red hot 2/9 favourite to be the next inhabitant of 10 Downing Street. | Getty Images
2. Ed Miliband - 14/1
Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero Ed Miliband unexpectedly lost the 2015 General Election to David Cameron by 10 seats, effectively beginning the process of Brexit. It would be one of the more remarkable political comebacks if he was able to give becoming PM another shot. The bookies reckon he has an 14/1 chance of belatedly moving into Downing Street. | Getty Images
3. Nigel Farage - 20/1
If Keir Starmer does manage to make it to the next election as PM then there's one candidate who is clear favourite to beat him. It may have seemed unthinkable in the days following Labour's landslide victory at the last General Election, but Reform UK are now leading the polls by a quite hefty amount and were the big winners in the recent English local elections - as well as making ground in the Scottish and Welsh parliament polls. That means that Nigel Farage is the 20/1 third favourite to be the next Prime Minister. | AFP via Getty Images
4. Wes Streeting - 22/1
When former Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigned his position many thought he would trigger a leadership challenge but none occurred - maybe because he didn't have the numbers to do so? He's said he'll be putting his name forward to succeed Keir Starmer but has seen his odds lengthen to 22/1 in recent days. | Getty Images