New poll says 47 per cent of Scots would reject independence

A new poll on Scottish Independence voting intentions by BMG Research shows that if a second referendum was held tomorrow, results would be similar to when Scots voted No in September 2014.

Nicola Sturgeon has said that a draft bill on a second independence referendum will be drawn up next week. Picture: Lisa McPhillips

The poll, published by BMG for the Herald, comes after Nicola Sturgeon announced at the opening day of the SNP conference in Glasgow that a draft referendum bill is to be published next week.

The First Minister indicated her desire to hold a referendum before the UK formally withdraws from the EU in two years’ time. However, this latest BMG poll suggests that, as it stands, 47 per cent of Scots would vote to remain as part of the Union, 39 per cent would vote in favour of independence, while 12 per cent said that they were undecided. The remaining 3 per cent chose not to say.

When the undecided and prefer not to say options were removed, 55 per cent said they would vote against independence – exactly the same percentage that voted No in the 2014 referendum.

The results come on the same day Sky published a poll that said almost half of the UK population believes that the chances of Scottish independence as “likely” to happen within 10 years. Forty-three per cent viewed it unlikely.

However, another result of the Sky poll said that 72 per cent of responents think that Scottish independence would be unlikely had the UK voted to remain as part of the European Union. Twenty per cent said it would have been likely even had the country voted Remain.

Speaking to the BBC’s Radio 4 Today programme this morning, Sturgeon said: “Scotland is in a position just now we didn’t ask to be in.

“We have been put into this position by, largely, the Conservative Party and if as a result of that there is a view in the Scottish Parliament that the best way to protect our interests is to offer the choice of independence again, the idea that the same party that put us into that position would then deny us that choice I just find inconceivable.”

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