Most Scots think next first minister should ditch gender reform legal challenge

Most Scots think the next first minister should ditch plans to launch a court battle to defend Nicola Sturgeon’s controversial gender reforms, a new poll shows.
Demonstrators show their support for the UK Government's decision to block Scotland's Gender Recognition Reform Bill in Glasgow earlier this month (Picture: Jane Barlow/PA)Demonstrators show their support for the UK Government's decision to block Scotland's Gender Recognition Reform Bill in Glasgow earlier this month (Picture: Jane Barlow/PA)
Demonstrators show their support for the UK Government's decision to block Scotland's Gender Recognition Reform Bill in Glasgow earlier this month (Picture: Jane Barlow/PA)

The poll found 53 per cent believed the Scottish Government should not proceed with a legal challenge over the decision by UK ministers to block the legislation.

However, more than half (51 per cent) of SNP voters thought it should, leaving the next party leader with a tough decision in their first few weeks in office.

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Humza Yousaf, the SNP health secretary, and Ash Regan, a former minister who resigned over her opposition to the gender reforms, are both expected to launch their pitches for the top job today. Kate Forbes, the finance secretary, is also poised to enter the race to replace Ms Sturgeon, who announced her resignation on Wednesday.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon waves to members of the public outside Bute House in Edinburgh after she announced during a press conference that she will stand down as First Minister for Scotland after eight yearsFirst Minister Nicola Sturgeon waves to members of the public outside Bute House in Edinburgh after she announced during a press conference that she will stand down as First Minister for Scotland after eight years
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon waves to members of the public outside Bute House in Edinburgh after she announced during a press conference that she will stand down as First Minister for Scotland after eight years

Ms Sturgeon previously said a court battle was inevitable after the UK Government blocked the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill from receiving royal assent.

The legislation would make it easier for trans people to change their legal gender by removing the need for medical reports. It received cross-party support in Holyrood but proved hugely controversial.

The Scottish Government has until April 17 to launch a court challenge against the UK decision. A new SNP leader will be in place by the end of March, potentially leaving them just weeks to act. Ms Forbes, a favourite for the top job, has previously expressed concerns about the gender reforms.

The new poll, undertaken by Savanta for Scotland on Sunday, found just 32 per cent of voters believed the Scottish Government should proceed with a legal challenge over the gender legislation, while 15 per cent said they did not know.

Among SNP voters, 32 per cent said the legal challenge should not go ahead, while 17 per cent did not know.

The poll showed 67 per cent of voters believed Ms Sturgeon made the right decision to resign, with fewer than one in five (19 per cent) arguing she made the wrong decision. A further 13 per cent said they did not know.

The number of SNP voters who believed the decision was correct was lower, but remained a majority at 54 per cent. Almost a third of 2021 SNP voters, 29 per cent, said Ms Sturgeon made the wrong decision to stand down.

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The poll found increased opposition to the next general election being fought as a “de-facto” referendum, the outgoing First Minister’s preferred option. Opposition was up eight points to 61 per cent, with just over a quarter (27 per cent) believing it is the right move.

At a press conference on Wednesday, Ms Sturgeon said she knew it was the right time to step down “in my head and my heart”. She said her decision was not a result of “short-term pressures”, such as the controversies surrounding her gender reforms and trans rights.

However, voters believed the row bruised both Ms Sturgeon and the Scottish Government. More than half (55 per cent) said Ms Sturgeon had personally been weakened, with 23 per cent arguing the controversy had strengthened her position.

Overall, Ms Sturgeon’s legacy is mixed among voters, with half saying Scotland is in a worse place today than it was when she took office. Around a fifth (21 per cent) believed Scotland had improved, with a similar proportion (22 per cent) believing no progress had been made.

Despite this, a majority of voters (54 per cent) said Ms Sturgeon’s tenure as First Minister was a success. In total, a fifth (20 per cent) said it was an “overwhelming” success, with 35 per cent stating it had “somewhat” been a success. More than a quarter, 28 per cent, said it was a failure, with just one per cent saying they did not know.

SNP voters, however, were almost unanimous, with 86 per cent saying it had been a success and more than a third (38 per cent) stating it had been overwhelming. Just five per cent of SNP voters believed her time in office to be a failure.

Savanta interviewed 1,004 Scottish adults aged 16 and over online between February 15 and 17.

Elsewhere, Mhairi Black, the SNP’s deputy Westminster leader, warned any move to the right could “kill” the party.

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Writing in The National newspaper, she said: “Any turn to the right, fiscally or socially, would risk alienating a huge slice of our membership and our electoral credibility.

“Even practically speaking, any attempt to move the party to the right would destroy the main motivation for many activists out chapping doors and convincing others that Scotland can take a different path to that which the rest of the UK is following. Take that reason away and you’ll very quickly find no-one under the age of 35 willing to deliver any of your leaflets.”

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