Deputy Political Editor

Published 9th Mar 2025, 06:00 GMT

As the UK government sets out its plans to essentially wind down the oil and gas sector amid jobs concerns, new analysis claims the North Sea could actually create an increase in roles in the next five years - but it will take a "laser-focus" from Labour ministers on scaling up green technology.

Sir Keir Starmer’s party was upfront before the general election. If Labour entered Downing Street, the party vowed to “end new licences” for North Sea oil and gas exploration - tied with a pledge to continue the energy profits levy, now set to end in 2030, causing business leaders in North East Scotland to brand Sir Keir’s team as “traitors”.

There is a drive to reskill North Sea oil and gas workers to undertake renewables work.

But data from industry body Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) makes clear that even without Labour’s decision to accelerate the winding down of an already declining resource of fossil fuels, under the previously oil-happy Conservative administration at Westminster oil and gas jobs were being lost.

Between 2016 and 2023, direct and indirect oil and gas jobs dropped by 37 per cent from 191,000 to 121,000 - despite the Tory government issuing dozens of new licences.

But the jobs projections for a sector that still creates around £5 billion of annual revenue are stark.

Research from Robert Gordon University (RGU) found that the direct and indirect oil and gas workforce was forecast to decline from 120,000 in 2023 to potentially as few as 60,000 by 2030.

Despite fears that renewables industries are not as jobs intensive as the oil and gas sector, although there is a lack of UK data to support this, RGU has estimated that offshore renewables jobs, which includes wind, carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen could increase to as many as 138,000 in 2030 if the UK government’s clean energy strategy all goes to plan.

A new study from independent “system change company” SystemIQ, has concluded that “while oil and gas production phasedown is inevitable, UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) energy jobs do not need to decline”.

It added: “Current estimates show approximately 210,000 jobs in the UKCS energy system, encompassing direct and indirect employment in oil and gas production, decommissioning, offshore wind, and CCS.

“If the UK successfully meets its renewable energy targets, including both offshore wind and CCS scale up, and develops a robust decommissioning industry, total UKCS energy system jobs could potentially increase to around 250,000 by 2030.”

A UK government source told Scotland on Sunday that there must be a “laser-focus” on scaling up the promised renewables industries, and the jobs associated with them, at a fast enough pace to ensure workers are not left behind.

Boosting renewable energy could create additional North Sea jobs. Picture: Andy Buchanan/AFP via Getty Images.

Jake Molloy, former general secretary of the oil workers union the Offshore Industry Liaison Committee (OILC) and former RMT regional organiser with responsibility for all offshore energy workers, said that "a managed transition from oil and gas to a renewable energy economy can work for most North Sea jobs and energy security”, but he warned “a proper economy-wide plan is now urgently needed”.

He added: “Industry and government must work with unions to ensure highly skilled oil and gas industry workers have clear pathways to offshore wind, manufacturing, CCS, hydrogen, and other roles critical for transition.”

But OEUK has raised concerns that accelerating a decline of the oil and gas sector could put thousands of jobs at risk, as set out in the SystemIQ report.

Ben Ward, OEUK market intelligence manager, said: “Energy transition analysis by Robert Gordon University in Aberdeen says nine out of 10 workers in the offshore oil and gas industry have skills that would be transferable to the renewable energy sector.

“This report also says that a rapid decline in domestic oil and gas production would jeopardise 60,000 jobs and domestic energy production.”

He added: “While the UK is still dependent on oil and gas for 75 per cent of its energy needs, we must ensure as much of it as possible is produced here.

“Protecting jobs and domestic energy security are the issues at the centre of OEUK’s campaign for a homegrown energy future to generate energy industry investment, meet our climate goals and grow employment.”

The Labour UK government has launched a consultation on the future of the North Sea, and set out its justification and reasoning for wanting to issue no new licences.

A UK government document states that Labour’s “overarching objective” is to “foster an internationally-leading offshore clean energy industry, which ensures good, long-term jobs, growth and investment in communities across the North Sea”.

Two supportive objectives have also been set out - to “ensure our oil and gas workers and supply chain can take advantage of the opportunities of our clean energy transition” as well as “to take a globally standard-setting, 1.5°C and climate science aligned approach to future oil and gas production”.

The UK government has insisted that “our North Sea no longer has the reserves available to meet domestic energy demand”.

It has stressed that “we expect that the government’s commitment not to issue new licences will make a marginal overall difference to future North Sea production”.

UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband has insisted that “the North Sea will be at the heart of Britain’s energy future”.

He added: “Oil and gas production will continue to play an important role and, as the world embraces the drive to clean energy, the North Sea can power our plan for change and clean energy future in the decades ahead.”

Mr Miliband said he would work with the sector to “develop a plan that enables us to take advantage of the tremendous opportunities of the years ahead”.

Labour’s 2030 clean power strategy, which aims to cut the proportion of electricity produced from gas to just five per cent, anticipates that UK offshore wind capacity will soar from the current 15GW to 50GW by the end of the decade.

Onshore wind, which has a current UK capacity of 14.2GW is expected to reach 29GW by 2030. Similarly, solar power is anticipated to increase from the current 16.6GW capacity to 47GW by 2030.

With renewable manufacturing jobs in the past being lost overseas, the UK government has awarded £55m to expand the Port of Cromarty Firth to transform the location into a major hub for floating offshore wind - with Labour vowing it will create hundreds of skilled jobs.

Emma Harrick, director of energy transition and supply chain at Scottish Renewables, said: “When it comes to generating clean power, Scotland has already taken significant strides with its £10bn renewable energy industry supporting more than 42,000 jobs.

Renewables will scaled up in Scotland and across the UK (Picture: Ashley Cooper/Construction Photography/Avalon/Getty Images)

“Our industry has been investing in skills for decades and hundreds of supply chain businesses are training people across the country to ensure we maximise our clean energy resource for generations to come.”

She added: “We know that offshore wind will be instrumental in tackling climate change and will create an abundance of career opportunities in areas like electrical engineering, vessel management and turbine maintenance.

“Therefore, as we build more offshore wind farms in the North Sea and around the coastlines of Scotland, we will need the Scottish and UK governments to invest in the skills necessary for the high-quality, sustainable jobs that will deliver our green energy future.”

But if the jobs are to follow plans to scale up renewable industries, the UK and Scotland must scale up emerging technologies such as green and low-carbon hydrogen and CCS at a rapid pace.

The UK’s North Sea infrastructure and seabed has the potential to store 78Gt of carbon dioxide while OEUK has estimated that the UK CCS industry could be worth £100bn to local manufacturing employers by 2050.

But Scotland’s CCS strategy, the Acorn project based near Peterhead and poised to connect to future Grangemouth technologies, has still not been fully funded by the UK government, much to the frustration of the Scottish Government.

There are suggestions that Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ impending spending cuts could delay the Acorn project further.

Gillian Martin, the SNP’s acting net zero and energy secretary, has insisted “the energy transition is an era-defining economic opportunity for Scotland”, adding it has the “potential to provide tens of thousands of good-quality sustainable green jobs across the country”.

Acting SNP energy secretary Gillian Martin | Andrew Milligan/PA Wire

She said: “We are leading the UK in delivering a green jobs revolution and unlocking the tremendous potential that is held by that transition and the wider net zero journey.

“As of 24 September, we had approximately 10.2GW of operational onshore wind capacity in Scotland, and we are working hard to ensure that new developments maximise value for communities through the onshore wind sector deal, which includes commitments for actions by both the government and industry that will secure benefits for Scotland’s economy, communities and natural environment.

“To complement our work on deployment of onshore wind, we are pressing forward with our ambitious offshore wind targets, which will ensure that Scotland is fuel secure well into the future, and will provide good-quality jobs in energy for the long term.”

Conservative MSP Douglas Lumsden | supplied

But Scottish Conservative shadow energy and net zero secretary, Douglas Lumsden, has warned that “hypothetical job projections in the renewables sector does nothing to help oil and gas workers who need support right now”.

He added: “The industry has been abandoned by Holyrood’s cosy left-wing consensus who would turn the taps off overnight and throw tens of thousands of workers on the scrapheap.

“There is nothing just about a transition that abandons highly-skilled workers with no concrete jobs to go into.”

Labour's North Sea plan to create additional energy jobs - despite oil and gas decline

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