Labour significantly narrows gap with SNP, analysis of new poll shows

Fabian Society analysis of YouGov survey data puts Labour at 31 per cent and the SNP at 33 per cent.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer (left) and Anas Sarwar, leader of Scottish Labour. Picture: PA

Labour has significantly narrowed the gap with the SNP and is on course to gain seats across Scotland at the next Westminster election, according to analysis of a new poll.

Fabian Society analysis of YouGov survey data puts Labour at 32 per cent in a general election and the SNP at 33 per cent, once those who don’t know or would not vote are removed.

Labour’s current support includes 17 per cent of people who voted SNP in 2019. The Scottish Fabians previously calculated that Labour needs the backing of one-in-five of those who voted SNP or Green to win 25 target seats across Scotland and form a majority government.

Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice has said that for every 12 seats Labour win in Scotland, it takes two points off the swing needed in the rest of the UK.

The poll of 1,003 Scots over the age of 18, which took place between October 2 and 6, presented various possible scenarios after the next general election, with a Labour majority government emerging as the most popular outcome in Scotland.

Katherine Sangster, national director of the Scottish Fabians, said: “Following the victory in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election, this research shows Labour is well positioned to win target seats across Scotland at the next election.

“Labour is making significant progress in rebuilding the ‘first red wall’, with key voter groups either intending to vote Labour or open to doing so – and they want a majority Labour government after the next election.

“There remains more to do for Labour to convert support into votes at the ballot box, and there is an obvious group to persuade: those who prefer a majority Labour government but aren’t yet backing the party. However, the evidence is clear – Labour is on the right track towards winning seats across Scotland and forming a majority government whenever the next election is called.”

Last week’s by-election in Rutherglen and Hamilton West saw a dramatic 20.4 per cent swing from the SNP to Labour. UK Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer hailed it as a “seismic result”, adding that voters in the constituency had “sent a clear message” that it is “time for change”.