Poll: Anas Sarwar on course to lead Labour to power in Holyrood while Alex Salmond makes comeback

Anas Sarwar is on course to lead Scottish Labour to power in Holyrood for the first time in almost two decades, a new poll suggests.

A Norstat poll for The Sunday Times also shows Alex Salmond set for a dramatic return to the Scottish Parliament, with his Alba Party winning four seats.

Meanwhile, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK would secure eight MSPs after eating into the support of the Scottish Conservatives.

Sir John Curtice, the polling expert and professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said the poll would see the SNP narrowly win the most seats at Holyrood, with 41 to Labour’s 40.

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However, this would leave it short of an overall majority, and the support of other pro-independence parties would not be enough to get it over the line.

This would likely leave the path clear for Mr Sarwar to become first minister with the backing of other unionist parties. It would be the first time in the history of devolution that the biggest party in Holyrood did not form a government.

Russell Findlay, who is running to become the next leader of the Scottish Tories, said the poll was “deeply concerning” for his party.

Speaking to BBC Radio Scotland, he added: “That’s why this party, our party, the Scottish Conservatives, have to get out house in order. We have to unite. We have to come up with a range of credible policies, which I’m attempting to do. And we have to persuade the hard-working, decent majority of people in Scotland that we are on their side, and that’s a golden opportunity.”

Alba said the poll showed voting for it on the regional list “will now be crucial in returning a pro independence majority to Holyrood after the next Scottish Parliament election [in 2026].”

The poll shows the SNP on 33 per cent for the constituency vote, with Labour on 30 per cent. The Tories are on just 12 per cent, while 9 per cent said they would back Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. The Liberal Democrats are on 8 per cent, the Greens on 5 per cent, and ‘others’ are on 2 per cent.

On the more proportional regional list vote, the SNP and Labour are tied on 28 per cent, while the Tories are on 14 per cent. Reform again polled 9 per cent, while the Greens were on 8 per cent; the Lib Dems, 7 per cent; and Alba, 5 per cent.

Analysis by Sir John suggested this would see the SNP secure 41 MSPs; Labour, 40; the Tories, 18; the Greens, 10; Reform, eight; the Lib Dems, eight; and Alba, four.

At last month’s general election, the SNP fell from 48 MPs in 2019 to just nine. Labour, meanwhile, won 37 seats, a dramatic increase on 2019 when it returned just one MP.

However, Sir John said voters are more likely to back the SNP in Holyrood elections, while the proportional system "makes it much more difficult for Labour to win seats on the scale it did last month".

"Fending off Labour's challenge will require strong and effective leadership from the SNP," he told The Sunday Times. "The challenge that still faces [SNP leader John] Swinney is whether he can make more of a success of his party's leadership than when he first led the party in the early years of devolution."