Labour fears realised as voters switch to the Lib Dems

• Tories set to make no headway from 2001 election

• Labour to lose 6 seats - their worst result since 1992

• 55% of voters believe Blair lied over war in Iraq

Key quote This poll confirms recent trends that Liberal Democrats can make gains in our top target seats and overtake the SNP in terms of share of the vote" - Iain Smith, for the Liberal Democrats

Story in full LABOUR is poised for its worst general election result in Scotland for 13 years as voters desert the party for the Liberal Democrats, according to a new opinion poll for The Scotsman published today.

The ICM survey found 39 per cent support for Labour in Scotland, which represents a drop of five per cent on the party’s showing in 2001 and its lowest share of the vote since 1992.

The poll suggests that Labour voters are switching to the Liberal Democrats in large numbers and that Labour will lose three Scottish seats to Charles Kennedy’s party when voters go to the polls tomorrow.

If the results are matched in the election, Labour would win just 40 seats north of the Border, 16 fewer than four years ago and six fewer than the notional result from 2001 when boundary changes are taken into account.

There is further bad news for Labour in the poll’s finding that more than half of Scots believe Tony Blair was dishonest about the reasons he gave for taking Britain to war in Iraq, with under a third believing the Prime Minister was honest.

This suggests that the focus on Iraq in the last 10 days of the campaign has damaged Labour in general and the Prime Minister in particular, helping the anti-war parties.

The poll indicates that the Liberal Democrats are poised to overtake the SNP and become the second biggest party in Scotland in terms of both seats (12) and votes cast.

The SNP has been the second biggest party in Scotland in terms of votes cast for the last 13 years and being pushed into third place would indicate a serious and long-term problem for the Nationalists.

Alex Salmond has promised that the SNP will make progress at this election in both seats won and votes cast, and while the poll suggests the Nationalists will win one more seat than they did in 2001 - six compared to five - the prospect of falling into third place will horrify SNP activists and focus attention on Mr Salmond’s leadership.

According to the poll, Labour should expect to lose East Dunbartonshire, Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey and Aberdeen South to the Liberal Democrats, Dundee East and Ochil and South Perthshire to the SNP and Dumfries and Galloway to the Tories.

Although Labour will still emerge as by far the largest party in Scotland, a return of 40 seats will represent a major reverse for the party given its traditional dominance north of the Border and the 56 seats it won in 2001.

The reduction in the number of Scottish seats from 72 to 59 has obviously hurt Labour but a loss of 16 seats would represent a major dip in the party’s support in Scotland on top of the boundary changes, and is far worse than party leaders expected going into this election campaign.

If the poll findings are reflected in real votes cast tomorrow, it will inevitably lead to recriminations within the Scottish Labour leadership and fights over who is to blame.

The poll also represents bad news for the Tories, suggesting the Conservatives will only get 15 per cent of the vote (almost exactly the same as the party achieved in Scotland in 2001) and will only win one seat, Dumfries and Galloway.

The Tories won just one seat in 2001 and the poll indicates that the Conservatives cannot expect any sort of revival, at least in Scotland, at this election, with the best they can hope for being the single MP north of the Border once again.

Support for the smaller parties is predicted to be slightly higher than in previous general elections but even with the Greens, the Scottish Socialists and others securing success in the Scottish Parliament and raising their profile, they are not expected to get anywhere near enough in any individual constituencies to return any MPs this time round.

The poll does tend to suggest that the trend shown by UK-wide opinion polls over the campaign is being followed in Scotland.

There has been much discussion, particularly from the SNP, during the campaign about Scottish independence.

Voters were asked whether they supported Scottish independence, the status quo of the devolved settlement or a return to the situation before the Scottish Parliament.

The SNP will be encouraged that 29 per cent support independence, but they will be disappointed that this figure has failed to rise significantly over the last few years.

Past ICM polls for The Scotsman have shown support for independence at between 24 per cent and 33 per cent for the last seven years, and while today’s poll finding is near the top end of that range, it is some way short of the level the SNP need to drive ahead towards independence.

The poll also found that 45 per cent support the status quo and 18 per cent want a return to pre-devolution days.

The problem of Iraq for the Prime Minister was highlighted by the responses to the question of whether Mr Blair had given an honest or dishonest account of the case for going to war.

A total of 55 per cent said they thought the Prime Minister had been dishonest and 31 per cent said they thought he had been honest. But the poll findings differed widely by age- group with 72 per cent of 18-24 year-olds against the Prime Minister and just 44 per cent of pensioners believing Mr Blair to be dishonest.

There was a similarly depressing picture for Jack McConnell on immigration. The First Minister has championed his "Fresh Talent" initiative designed to attract foreign migrants to Scotland. According to the poll, he still has to persuade the majority of Scots to support immigration. ICM found that only 29 per cent of Scots wanted to attract more migrants to Scotland and 54 per cent were opposed to the policy.

This opposition was found to be strongest among Conservatives, among those unemployed, and was the highest in Glasgow, where 63 per cent of respondents opposed immigration.

One area which will please the opposition parties is the future of the Scottish regiments. The pollsters asked how important the issue of the axing the regiments was to people, and they found that 62 per cent of voters believed it mattered a lot to them, while only 34 per cent felt it was not an important issue.

This will worry Labour strategists who have faced the combined assault of Save the Scottish Regiments campaigners as well as opposition parties using the issue to make ground, particularly in rural areas.

Support for retaining the regiments was highest among working-class pensioners in council houses.

Iain Smith, for the Liberal Democrats, said: "This poll confirms recent trends that Liberal Democrats can make gains in our top target seats and overtake the SNP in terms of share of the vote."

A Tory spokesman refused to comment on the details of the poll but added: "The only poll that matters is the one on Thursday but we know we will win seats in Scotland."

A Labour spokesman said: "What is clear is this election is being very keenly fought in the marginals. The truth is that if people want a Labour government they will have to vote for it on Thursday."

Mr Salmond, the SNP leader, said: "The poll shows we are on track to make progress in this election. It is all to play for in the last 24 hours of the campaign.

"If everyone who is inclined to vote SNP in the Scottish Parliament elections votes for us on Thursday, we will be chapping on [the door of] victory."