Why the Scottish Government will lose vote over free school meals - but will ignore the result

The Scottish Government is almost certain to lose a vote on free school meals this afternoon - but don’t expect ministers to reinstate the policy as originally planned.

John Swinney and Shona Robison have done the unthinkable - unite the Scottish Tories and the Scottish Greens. Both parties are fizzing about the watering down of the key policy to combat child poverty.

READ MORE: Why the SNP's claim it has lifted 100,000 children out of poverty is not all it seems

Despite being in the SNP manifesto in 2021, the Greens have taken ownership of the pledge that would have extended free school meals to all primary pupils by next year - a vow that appears to have been turfed onto a scrap heap with a flurry of other policies struck as part of the Bute House Agreement.

Let’s be upfront - today’s debate and vote tabled by the Scottish Conservatives is merely happening to cause as much embarrassment and political damage to the SNP Government as possible. 

First Minister John Swinney (Picture: Andrew Milligan) | PA

The Tories’ education spokesperson Liam Kerr has accused Mr Swinney of having “shamefully abandoned Scotland’s poorest pupils”, warning it was simply “another example of how the SNP have repeatedly let down Scotland’s children”.

He said:  “If the SNP will not U-turn, then I call on MSPs from all parties to join the Scottish Conservatives and send the strongest possible message to the SNP in this vote on Wednesday and back the rollout of free school meals for all primary pupils.”

The Tories are using their debate time to try and humiliate SNP ministers over free school meals, with a separate debate over the excruciating reinstatement of peak rail fares, essentially making rail travel on Scotland’s nationalised service much more expensive for commuters.

But the free school meals vote is not binding. The Scottish Government will not be forced to change tact, nor are they even able to. It will most likely tell us that it will take note of the will of parliament, but ultimately will ignore the demands.

The reason the policy is being delayed is down to funding, or lack of it.

Ms Robison and Mr Swinney have been frank the finances are in a woeful place - there is no extra headroom to bring forward pretty much anything.

We will continue to hear the blame game on why the finances are in such a dire position. And Scots will no doubt be told plenty of theories in this afternoon’s debate, But the Scottish Government will leave the debate under more pressure to follow through on a promise it has made and has admitted it no longer can.

The vote may also be an indication of things to come for Mr Swinney as he tries to navigate running a minority government in a pretty hostile Parliament.

The First Minister was quick to play down fears the Greens refusing to back his budget means that it could be toast, fairly highlighting there is plenty of time until we reach the first stage of the budget in December.

But Mr Swinney is going to have to secure the support of opponents if his administration is to survive. On free school meals and a host of other issues, as things stand, it is quite tricky to see exactly where that help might emerge from.