John Swinney: I'll stand as the first prime minister of an independent Scotland in 2031

Scottish National Party candidates for Angus South, Lloyd Melville, and Dundee City East, Stephen Gethins, with party leader John Swinney and candidate for Dundee City West, Heather Anderson | Mike Boyd/PA Wire

John Swinney believes he can win an independence referendum in 2028 – with the SNP leader vowing he will then run to be the first leader in an independent Scotland in 2031.

Having set the SNP the target of winning a majority of seats in next month’s Holyrood election in a bid to force another vote on the future of the UK, Mr Swinney is confident that independence supporters will be successful second time round.

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The 2014 referendum – held after Alex Salmond became the only party leader so far to win an overall majority of seats in the Scottish Parliament – saw Scots vote by 55 per cent to 45 per cent in favour of staying part of the UK. But with the SNP leader now focusing on the prospect of another referendum in 2028, Mr Swinney believes independence supporters can “land it” by “being persuasive”.

With Scotland – and the rest of the UK – now out of the European Union, despite claims made in the run-up to 2014 that voting against independence was necessary to remain part of the EU, he also believes voters will be “less susceptible to the arguments made by the No side”.

He spoke about the prospect of another referendum as he launched the SNP’s election battlebus at the weekend.

He said: “I think we are very close to winning Scottish independence. I just have to make it happen.”

Describing himself as being a “persuasive person”, he added: “I have persuaded many people to change the way they vote for me.

“I have managed to persuade many, many people to vote for budgets they never thought they would ever vote for by being accommodating and reasonable and respecting other people’s perspectives.

“And I think that is how we will land it, by being persuasive.”

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Asked directly if he believes he will win an independence referendum, Mr Swinney said simply: “Yes”.

He then believes Scotland could complete the process of becoming an independent nation within 18 months – the same timetable that was suggested by the party in the run-up to the 2014 vote. That could see Scotland become independent by the end of 2030, making the Holyrood elections due to be held the following year the first in an independent Scotland.

Asked if he would step down at this point, Mr Swinney said instead he would run to be the first leader of an independent Scotland.

“It’s the point at which I stand to be the first prime minister of an independent Scotland,” he declares.

In the run-up to the election, Mr Swinney said he was “juggling” campaigning with his family responsibilities to his wife Elizabeth, who has multiple sclerosis, while his youngest child Matthew, 15, is about to sit exams at school.

Mr Swinney says: “It is all a juggle. But lots of people have lots of juggles in their life, I am no different.”

However on the campaign trail he said he has been managing to get home “most nights”, which he says is “actually a big benefit”.

The SNP leader said: “We’re trying to structure my campaign to make sure I get home at night, which really matters.”