John Curtice: ‘Expect much arm twisting and cries of anguish in the coming weeks’

BE careful what you wish for. It has always been a wise piece of advice to any politician. Today it is one of which supporters of the UK coalition have been forcibly reminded, following the publication of the Boundary Commission’s proposals for new Westminster constituencies in Scotland.

Thanks to new legislation the number of MPs in Scotland is being cut from 59 to 52 as part of the coalition’s attempt to cut the overall number of MPs from 650 and 600 and ensure that constituencies throughout the UK are more or less of the same size.

Labour might currently dominate Scotland’s parliamentary representation, but it is the Liberal Democrats who look as though they have most to lose if the commission’s initial ideas are eventually to be put into place.

The party is certainly set to lose a seat in the Highlands – and it is former party leader Charles Kennedy who could be scrabbling to save his parliamentary career. To the north nearly half of his existing Ross, Skye Lochaber seat is gobbled up by an enlarged version of John Thurso’s Caithness and Sutherland seat.

Meanwhile, to the south another portion, Lochaber, is moved into Alan Reid’s Argyll seat. Then the remaining third is moved into a new Inverness and Skye seat, the bulk of which consists of Danny Alexander’s existing berth, and who would thus fancy his chances of fighting again.

Meanwhile, in the North-east the Lib Dems could well struggle to retain two seats. A significant portion’s of Malcolm Bruce’s seat and Robert Smith’s West Aberdeenshire seat are shaved off into neighbouring less favourable territory, leaving just one clear Lib Dem seat, and perhaps ensuring the SNP would not lose out at all.

At the same time, David Mundell, the Conservatives’ only Scottish representative, finds his hard won Dumfriesshire seat significantly redrawn, leaving him the task of holding off a Labour challenge in a newly drawn Dumfries seat .

Still, inevitably there are some Labour MPs who will be worried about their parliamentary careers this morning. Significant boundary redrawing to the west of Glasgow, that would require shadow foreign secretary, Douglas Alexander to fight a much altered seat, could prove particularly awkward for one of the arch-supporters of first-past-the-post, Brian Donohoe.

Meanwhile, Labour certainly lose a seat in Glasgow itself where Anas Sarwar would probably be left challenging Ann Mckechin for a very different looking Glasgow Central seat. In Edinburgh too, the proposals look likely to lose Labour a seat, with Sheila Gilmore and Ian Murray fighting for a new Edinburgh East.

Of course, such internecine battles can be avoided if one of the potential combatants opts to retire. Such a decision on Gordon Brown’s part could certainly help smooth Labour’s path in Fife and Clackmannan where otherwise four Labour MPs look as though they would be fighting for three safe berths.

Expect much arm twisting and cries of anguish in the coming weeks.

• John Curtice is Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University.