John Curtice: English local election results 'good news' for John Swinney and 'bad news' for Anas Sarwar

Reform’s success in last week’s English local elections are “bad news” for Scottish Labour lader Anas Sarwar, according to polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice.

Prof Curtice said there was no reason the polls, which predict Nigel Farage’s party will do well in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, would not come true.

Reform UK won 677 council seats south of the Border last week, taking control of ten local authorities, and winning a Westminster by-election to add another MP to their roster.

Political scientist Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University. Picture: Leon Neal/Getty Images | Leon Neal/Getty Images

On the other hand, the Conservatives and Labour had a terrible time at the polls. The Tories lost 674 seats and Labour lost 187 councillors, pushing them down into third and fourth place respectively.

The latest Holyrood polling in March put Reform UK on 17 per cent on the constituency vote share and 16 per cent on the list vote, which is the highest the party has ever recorded in a Scottish poll.

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Prof Curtice told the BBC: “People are asking themselves if they could believe the GB-wide opinion polls suggesting Reform is at 25 per cent, narrowly ahead of the Conservatives and Labour.

“If anything the local election results in parts of England suggest, if anything, they are doing better than that.

“Reform is not as popular north of the Border at 15 per cent rather than 25 per cent, but given what’s happened frankly there is no reason to disbelieve that.”

The polling expert said support for Reform UK in Scotland was concentrated amongst those who supported the union and those who were anti-immigration and against gender forms.

Prof Curtice added: “They are primarily taking votes from the Conservatives and Labour - Labour is more vulnerable north of the Border than in the south.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar. | Jane Barlow/Press Association.

“Very few who voted SNP last summer have switched in [Reform’s] direction, which means the message is bad news for Anas Sarwar and the Scottish Conservatives and good news for John Swinney.”

Prof Curtice said Mr Swinney’s election tactics were “clever” by helping to “sow dissension and disagreement within the unionist camp”.

He said there was “little prospect” of any unionist party in Scotland being in a position to create an administration after next year’s Holyrood election and the SNP would remain the largest party in Scotland, although would fall short of an overall majority.