John Curtice: All change as public's enthusiasm for electoral reform slumps

AS THE campaign on the referendum to change the way MPs are elected gets under way, our poll reveals that Scots' enthusiasm for electoral reform has waned during the past 12 months.

However, the principle that the number of seats each party gets in the House of Commons should match the number of votes it secures still receives widespread support.

Just over half (55 per cent) of people in Scotland now back proportional representation (PR). Shortly before last year's general election, as many as two-thirds (67 per cent) were in favour.

Despite their party's long-standing opposition to electoral reform, as many as 50 per cent of Conservative supporters backed PR last year. That has dropped to 39 per cent. Senior Tories, including David Cameron and William Hague, have been vocal in their defence of the current first-past-the-post system in recent weeks, which may have influenced their supporters.

However, support for PR has dropped even more sharply - from 82 to 61 per cent - among SNP supporters. Official SNP policy is to back PR. But now that a Scottish Parliament election is upon us, SNP supporters may be more aware that the use of a proportional system makes it virtually impossible for their party to secure a majority.

Backing for PR has also fallen particularly heavily among women. Only half now favour the idea, against 65 per cent a year ago.

However, rather than being particularly opposed to the idea, women are more likely to sit on the fence. Almost twice as many women as men say they "neither agree nor disagree" with PR. Both sides in the referendum debate would do well to target the female vote.

Still, PR is not on the referendum ballot paper. The proposed new system - the alternative vote (AV) - would probably have resulted in 20 or so more Liberal Democrat MPs at recent general elections, but that would still have left the party substantially under-represented. Indeed, some proponents of PR, such as Lord Owen, are urging a No vote.

Even so, it looks as though Scotland, with its experience both of PR and of being asked to rank candidates in order in the 2007 local elections is more inclined to votes Yes to AV than is Britain as a whole.

Since the beginning of the year, YouGov has asked referendum voting intention in nine Britain-wide surveys. At 38 per cent, the average proportion of people in Scotland saying they will vote Yes has been five points higher than across Britain as a whole. Thanks to the coincident Holyrood election, turnout is likely to be higher in Scotland than south of the border, that gap could prove decisive in the event of a close outcome.

Even so, events south of the Border appear to have helped undermine support in Scotland for one of the consequences of PR - coalition government. Last year, slightly more (54 per cent) said they preferred coalition than backed single party government (47 per cent). Now the position has been reversed; 59 per cent prefer single party government, while 41 per cent opt for coalition.

The change seems to be a reaction to the formation of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition at Westminster. Support for coalition has fallen away among supporters of the Westminster opposition parties, whereas Conservative voters are now much keener on the idea than a year ago.

It is little wonder that Labour leader Ed Miliband is reluctant to share a referendum platform with Lib Dem counterpart Nick Clegg.

John Curtice is Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University