James Mitchell: ‘It is now difficult to claim that the North Sea is about to run dry’

BP’s major investment in the North Sea confirms that oil will continue to be a major source of public revenue well into the future.But much has changed since the 1960s when BP became the leading North Sea operator, not least the political implications.

We know from recently discovered archives that successive UK governments deliberately played down the significance of North Sea oil while reaping enormous economic benefits.

It is now difficult to claim that the North Sea is about to run dry. Yet oil-fuelled nationalism is unlikely to play the part in SNP politics it did in the 70s.

The changing international politics of energy is brilliantly explained in Daniel Yergin’s books.

The Prize, published 20 years ago, has just been superseded by The Quest. The second book takes account of the changed context, including the rise of the environmental movement and investment in renewables.

Oil remains a very valuable commodity – the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster highlighted the precariousness of alternatives, and Libya shows how political instability in oil producing parts of the world affects oil supplies and prices, while technological advances bring previously inaccessible oil deposits within the reach.

Despite this, the days of the SNP relying on ‘Scotland’s oil’ to make its case for independence are over.

But energy remains a central part of the SNP’s message. Since coming to office in 2007, the SNP has sought to build up the Scottish Government’s capacity in energy at least to a level comparable to that of the old Scottish Office in the 1970s.

But this is explicitly an expertise in energy rather than oil. While North Sea Oil offers a massive enduring source of revenue for the British government, a more strategic long-term approach has been adopted in Edinburgh.

What ‘It’s Scotland’s Renewables’ lacks as a slogan, it more than makes up for as a substantive policy objective.

The case for a Scottish oil fund is as great today as ever. Norway and Alberta have used such funds to support long-term investment.

An oil fund could be established without independence, and might yet become a policy, once again, of at least one of the SNP’s opponents as an alternative to independence.

• Professor James Mitchell is head of school of government and public policy at Strathclyde university.