Deputy Political Editor

Published 6th Apr 2025, 06:00 BST

Nine months ago, Anas Sarwar helped usher in the first UK Labour government in 15 years. It was meant to be the first part of a two-step process of turning Scotland’s two governments red.

But little over a year out from a crunch Holyrood election that looked a done deal to oust the SNP from Bute House, Scottish Labour is pinning its vanishing hopes of power on “changing the conversation” of next year’s crunch poll to be all about public services and take the heat away from Sir Keir Starmer’s unpopularity.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar. (Photo by Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Scottish Labour leader is a renowned optimist, with a source close to him insisting that “even in private, Anas is still quietly upbeat about things” despite the party’s dire polling.

But there is an acknowledgement within his inner circle that “things are difficult for him”.

The majority of polls have, for some time, forecast the SNP will remain the biggest party at Holyrood, with the Holyrood arithmetic expected to produce a continuation of an SNP minority government.

The historic nature of Scottish Labour’s general election victory last year cannot be understated. At the previous election in 2019, the party returned just one MP with 18.6 per cent of the vote share. In July last year, Scottish Labour took 35.3 per cent of the vote and claimed 37 seats in the Commons - humbling the SNP in the process.

But that confidence of securing a win at the 2026 Holyrood election has evaporated after Labour’s nosedive in the polls, not helped by a series of unpopular decisions at Westminster. But with support for the SNP also in decline from the previous 2021 election, Labour is focusing on making next year’s poll a choice between John Swinney or Mr Sarwar to revive the NHS.

The first opportunity for Labour to test its message with the public will be a Holyrood by-election for the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, triggered by the untimely death of SNP MSP Christina McKelvie.

Ms McKelvie beat Labour in every election since the seat was established in 2011 - but Mr Sarwar’s party will need to perform well in seats across the Central Belt if it is to win power next year.

One Labour insider warned the party will “need to be match fit” for that by-election, adding that it was “a big opportunity with the voters”. But it could be an unpredictable contest, given the emotional circumstances.

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Polling expert Mark Diffley, founder and director of The Diffley Partnership, told The Scotsman that Scottish Labour was “in significant trouble” ahead of next year’s Holyrood election. But he said: “It would be wrong to say there is an inevitability about the SNP winning next year.”

Mr Diffley added: “It all looked pretty rosy after the general election and I think a lot of analysts would assume there would be a relatively smooth path to Bute House, having won such a convincing victory. They did better in Scotland compared to the rest of the UK, so Scottish Labour pulled their weight.

“Nine months on, the picture is significantly different. The way the polls stand at the moment, they certainly will not be forming the government at Holyrood after the election. There's still a year and a bit to rescue this. But it's not a done deal just yet, I would argue.”

Asked what has dented Mr Sarwar’s chances of reaching Bute House, Mr Diffley said: “The obvious and truthful answer is they are not immune to the unpopularity of the UK government.

“The Labour UK government had virtually no honeymoon period. It has made some pretty unpopular decisions, particularly around the economy. It has become very unpopular very quickly.

“The potential problem I think Scottish Labour has is the UK government has been pretty clear it wants to make very tough decisions in the early part of its terms in the hope when it goes back to the country in four or five years’ time, there might be a more positive story to tell.

“But Anas Sarwar and the Scottish Labour party do not have four or five years. They are working on entirely different timescales, so that strategy just has not worked for them.”

Mr Diffley warned that for Scottish Labour, “it's not credible to disagree with everything the UK government says”, while it is “difficult if they just agree with everything they come out with when they are accused of being the branch office of the wider party”.

He added: “That's the problem that they are in and it's screaming at them at the moment.”

Mr Diffley warned Scottish Labour “need big bold ideas” if the party is to turn around its fortunes.

Mr Sarwar used last month’s Scottish Labour conference to set out his first policies that will be put to the public at next year’s election - including ambitious vows to end the 8am rush for a GP appointment, ban mobile phones in classrooms and eradicate rough sleeping.

As well as battling with the SNP, Labour will also need to fend off the surge of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party, which polls are predicting could win up to a dozen seats at next year’s election.

Mr Diffley said: “Their vote is being squeezed in different directions. Some of it is disappearing back to the SNP, but some of it is going off to Reform as well - that's quite tricky. There is not a single message to bring those disaffected voters back.

“The rise of Reform is making things much worse for Labour. Scotland is not immune from what we are seeing in other parts of the UK and Europe with the rise of the far right.”

Scottish Labour is also hoping that a more positive picture could come out of Westminster ahead of the Holyrood election, but that prospect looks bleak.

The polling expert said: “What they will want and what I think they need to do is try and turn the conversation. What voters are not thinking about at the moment is the record of the SNP Government. So they need to change the conversation.

John Swinney of the SNP, left, and Anas Sarwar of Labour take part in BBC Scotland's UK General Election Debate at The University Of Glasgow in June 2024 (Picture: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images)

“The SNP has also lost a lot of support. Unfortunately for Labour, those voters are going in opposite directions and not just to Labour, which poses a difficult strategic problem.

“The Scottish Government is not a popular government and we are in an age of incumbents tending to struggle. In Canada a whole election seems to have turned on its head in response to an external event.”

A senior Scottish Labour source told The Scotsman “the SNP voter base isn’t as left-wing as everyone thinks it is”, adding that a lot of the lost voters from Mr Swinney’s party have “gone undecided”.

The source added: “Why have they not gone back to the SNP? Because they can't get a doctor's appointment.

“The risk to us is failing to convince people that we can change the country adequately. It’s not anything the SNP do. If the election is about ‘how much do you hate the UK government’, then it’s likely we’re going to lose the election. If the election is about the state of the NHS or education, it’s a wide open ball game for votes.

“What we’ve got is a moderately challenging situation with the UK government and a Scottish Government that’s perceived to be out of touch and failing to deliver on the key priorities of Scots.

“The key question of the election is ‘who do you trust better to deliver?’ It will be ‘who do you think can fix Scotland’s NHS - Anas Sarwar or John Swinney?’. The other question could be ‘do you hate the UK Labour government’, in which case, we will lose the election.”

Mr Sarwar has visited various nations over the past 18 months, giving the impression of a statesman in waiting.

The Scottish Labour leader has been deployed to Germany to discuss renewable energy and was this week in New York for Tartan Week, which he used to meet US senators and politicians, in contrast to the First Minister, who is keeping out of any trade talks so as to not scupper UK government efforts.

Mr Sarwar has also hinted at a divergence with the Labour UK government over oil and gas, suggesting the North Sea reserves should be drained in their entirety.

A Labour MSP has told The Scotsman about the frustration around the actions of the UK government and how that has been portrayed to the public.

The MSP said: “The messaging around some of the UK government decisions has been really disappointing and quite frustrating. It hasn’t been helpful at all. In a UK context, we also seem unable to properly shout about the many good things we are doing that are popular - or would be, if people properly knew about them.”

But a former Scottish Labour MSP, who quit the party in disgust over its cuts to disability benefits, has warned Mr Sarwar’s leadership is in tune with the UK government.

Former Lothian MSP Neil Findlay | Contributed

Speaking to The Scotsman, Neil Findlay said: “Nine months ago the leadership of the Scottish Labour party thought they were heading for victory in the 2026 Scottish election. Now they look like they are heading for their worst defeat since the formation of the Scottish Parliament.

“Whilst Starmer’s appalling policy decisions on the two-child cap, Waspi women, Grangemouth and cuts to social security for the sick and disabled are seeing votes haemorrhaging to other parties, the reality is the leadership of Scottish Labour fully endorse this right-wing agenda.

“It is their politics, so they can own their own defeat when it comes.”

Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie said: "Across Scotland, people are worried about the state of the NHS and are tired of paying more and getting less from the SNP. Scottish Labour is ready to fix our NHS and deliver a new direction for Scotland."

Inside Anas Sarwar's strategy to 'change the conversation' from UK Labour to rescue Scottish election bid

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