How polls show Reform and the Greens will seal the election fate of the Tories and SNP

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and the Scottish Greens are set to play a crucial role in determining the fate of Scotland’s general election – and could seal the fate of the Tories and SNP.

Polling has consistently shown that both the Conservatives and the SNP are in decline in Scotland.

At the start of the campaign, the Scottish Conservatives, despite the lull in support, were expected to hang onto the party’s six Westminster seats north of the Border. But a further slump in support, largely self-inflicted by Douglas Ross’s fatal error of judgement that will end his leadership, has seen the Tories fall further behind.

The rise of Reform UK, which is standing a candidate in every Scottish seat, could take enough support away from the Conservatives in marginal seats in Scotland to cost them on polling day.

The latest Savanta poll for The Scotsman, published last week, revealed that as many as one in eight 2019 Tory voters are now backing Reform.

A YouGov poll at the weekend highlighted that overall, Scots care more about immigration than independence, as well as tax, housing, education and the climate crisis. What the polling does not tell us is what the 20 per cent of Scots who rank immigration as one of their top three priorities think about the hostile immigration polices of the Conservatives and Reform. It may well be those policies are exercising people to oppose them.

If Reform does take crucial votes away from the Scottish Tories, it will only benefit the SNP – John Swinney’s party is the main challenger in all of the currently-held constituencies by the Conservatives.

In Mr Ross’s own election battle, in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East, too many votes for Reform could plunge the outgoing Tory leader into embarrassment. The party is throwing all it can at Mr Ross’s seat, while one Scottish Conservative insider told The Scotsman to “prepare for lots of Reform bashing this week” ahead of polling day on Thursday.

But the SNP could also be harmed in a similar way by a former ally. The Scottish Greens, who less than three months ago were serving in the Scottish Government, could take enough support away to cost Mr Swinney vital seats in the Central Belt.

The Greens are putting up 44 candidates. None of them are going to be elected to Westminster, but particularly in those Central Belt seats where support for the Greens is high, even a few hundred votes for the Greens could hand those constituencies to Labour at the expense of the SNP.

Around 20 per cent of 2019 SNP voters are switching to Labour this time around, according to polling, but some pro-independence voters may choose the Greens if they have lost faith in the SNP.

These smaller parties are set to play an important role in determining how bad a night the Tories and SNP have at the general election. Voter turnout and tactical voting could also be crucial as the SNP look to hold onto as much support as possible as the party faces battles with the Tories in the Borders and North East, Labour across the Central Belt and the LibDems in parts of the Highlands.