Holyrood election 2026: Will Anas Sarwar's Labour manifesto of ambition and wishful thinking sway voters
Scottish Labour’s blueprint for government is far from perfect - but Anas Sarwar’s biggest issue is convincing the public to open their ears to his vision for Scotland.
Anas Sarwar set out Scottish Labour’s pitch to form the next Holyrood government with a positive set of ambitions alongside a hefty dose of wishful thinking - but his biggest problem remains voters not being interested in what he has to offer.
The party’s manifesto launch, 24 days before the polls open, should be a blueprint for what a Scottish Labour government would look like.
The 98-page glossy prospectus has its laudable moments, but much like his call to oust Keir Starmer in February, it will likely do nothing to turn around Mr Sarwar’s evaporating hopes of becoming the next first minister.
There is no escaping that the task at hand for Scottish Labour is almost unthinkable. With public opinion in the gutter, largely due to his Labour colleagues at Westminster tanking the polls, Mr Sarwar has tried to table plans to overhaul Scotland’s public services with no extra money available to spend.
What is clear from the manifesto, which includes tinkering with many SNP priorities and vague reforms to Scotland’s public services, is that this is not a document that will win an election for Scottish Labour.
With Scottish Labour around 20 points behind the SNP in the polls, Mr Sarwar needs a miracle of the Lazarus variety to turn the tables on John Swinney. If anything, Labour’s polling has been going backwards since the election campaign got into full gear.
The manifesto launch for those inside the room at Edinburgh University with the Scottish Labour leader was positive - there was a noticeable feeling from activists that this was a big moment for Mr Sarwar’s push to remove the SNP from office after 19 years. The party has learnt lessons from the disastrous party conference in Paisley in March that called on voters to “hold your nose” and back Labour.
But those watching from afar, many who experienced sound problems from the faltering live stream, will still take some convincing that Mr Sarwar can do things better if he is given the chance to govern. For many, technology withstanding, they are simply not listening to his offer of a new government.
The vast majority of the headline policies that will form the backbone of Mr Sarwar’s campaign are not new - some have been tabled by Labour frontbenchers over the last few years, while others are simply tweaking SNP priorities.
In some cases, such as a flagship affordable homes targets, Labour’s ambition lags behind the SNP - with the party hoping voters will see its more realistic offer against the backdrop of Mr Swinney’s party’s failure to deliver promises.
Labour’s plans are also not fully costed, with big question marks over where the party would find the extra money to implement the policies it has vowed to roll out if it forms a government.
Mr Sarwar has made the NHS a focus of his manifesto, and his leadership - seizing on a narrative that health and social care services have stalled under the SNP, particularly since the pandemic.
But with the SNP calling Labour’s bluff on “ending the 8am rush” for GP appointments with a series of walk-in clinics already being rolled out, voters will be flicking through the manifesto, searching for other tangible pledges that will improve the NHS.
While many will welcome the noble ambition to “break down the barriers between health boards” so patients can travel to areas with shorter queues, and vows to “end corridor care” and "speed up ambulance response times”, there is no evidence of how any of that would be achieved.
For the thousands of people stuck on NHS lists, “streamlining” the number of health boards, “improving productivity metrics” and a vow to “recommit the NHS to delivering single sex wards on the basis of biological sex” to keep vocal campaigners happy, will do nothing to convince them that Labour being in charge would speed up waiting times.
Labour’s manifesto states an “ambition” to “reduce tax rates on Scottish tax payers”, over the next five years, but warns this is “contingent on delivering growth and closing the economic performance gap”.
It appears Mr Sarwar has not learnt lessons from Labour Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who has got herself into all sorts of bother for failing to usher in big growth pledges.
The Scottish Labour leader’s manifesto boldly claims that its economic plans “have the potential to increase Scottish GDP by between 2.1 per cent and 2.4 per cent over five years”, adding this would “deliver between £600m and £700m more to spend on public services”.
Mr Sarwar suggested that income tax for middle earners, a key squabbling point with the SNP, would be targeted for cuts if growth ambitions are realised. But that is not even close to a tax cut promise.
The normally-calm Mr Sarwar failed to keep a lid on his frustration with journalists asking about voters caring more about their anger with the Labour UK government than anything he has to offer.
Despite his insistence that May’s election is about devolved issues and the next Scottish government, unfortunately for him, he does not get to decide what motivates voters at the ballot box.
The Scottish Labour leader took the huff with The Scotsman for asking whether his manifesto has enough ambition to dramatically swing opinion polls in his favour, given he is lagging around 20 points behind the SNP and Reform UK is challenging him for second place.
“I look forward to proving you all wrong”, a defiant and techy Mr Sarwar insisted.
But it will be much easier said than done or a big slice of humble pie will be ordered for the Scottish Labour leader.
At the 2021 election, Mr Sarwar, just nine weeks into the job, led Scottish Labour into its worst ever Holyrood election result. If voters are not excited by his manifesto, he could be poised to go backwards again.
Given just two years ago, Labour was on course to be the biggest party, a humbling defeat would be seen as a missed opportunity to oust the SNP from office, one that might not come along again for some time.
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