High-wire act: Scotland’s fate and SNP’s in the balance

His income – the cash the Scottish Government receives from Westminster – is no longer rising, as it once did for his Labour predecessors. But the demands on that income are, unfortunately, rising like a rocket: inflation, the costs of an ageing population, and a whole host of commitments on combating climate change and giving Scots wrap-around government support will see to that. Somehow the circle must be squared.

In setting out the spending estimates for all the parts of the public sector he controls – schools, hospitals, infrastructure, and the employment of more than half a million people – his decisions will have massive repercussions for the country’s immediate prospects.

The main themes of Mr Swinney’s announcement have already been hinted at. The finance secretary will seek to “squeeze more from every pound”, in the hope of shrinking a funding gap running into the billions, through further efficiencies – code for getting rid of useless bureaucracy and, ultimately, public sector jobs. High-profile efficiencies, such as moves to create a new single police force, look set to be followed by proposals to merge some of the country’s 40-odd further education colleges.

Mr Swinney is also expected to try to cut demand on his services by investing in so-called preventative measures, where the Scottish Government “spends to save”. For example, number-crunchers have claimed that £700m worth of A&E costs could be saved if the state did more to help elderly people look after themselves better at home.

The finance secretary is then expected to throw what leftover cash he has to keep spades digging, in the belief that infrastructure investment can help support the economy.

But there are major doubts over whether all this will be enough. The SNP administration has known for some time that government spending is heading for the rocks; its own modelling has shown the spending gap to come. Earlier this summer, the Scottish Government’s former permanent secretary Sir John Elvidge said: “I think we can all see that the money isn’t there to continue running the suite of non-preventative policies that we have. So something has got to give.”

Mr Swinney also has to pay for the SNP’s election campaign – which included a five-year council tax freeze and a pledge to ensure that universities get the same funding as their counterparts down south, but without the ability to charge students £9,000 to do so.

Politically, with the SNP now focusing on the run-up to its referendum on independence, Mr Swinney has a tightrope to walk. The fate of the Lib Dems over the past year – crippled by saying one thing before an election and doing another after – is a reminder of the dangers. But, just as George Osborne has been able to blame his cuts on the inheritance left to him by Labour, Mr Swinney’s get-out is that he is simply passing on cuts the SNP has been landed with by Mr Osborne.

That claim has been water-tight so far. There is no reason to believe it won’t work again today.