Has Humza Yousaf taken Scottish Greens for granted and could they damage his authority and the SNP further?

It has arguably been a torrid 12 months for Humza Yousaf’s authority as First Minister.

Mr Yousaf could not have foreseen the nick his party would end up in when he took over the reins from Nicola Sturgeon. The party finances probe, out of Mr Yousaf’s hands, has led to the SNP plummeting in the polls.

Despite a difficult first year in the job, one thing he did inherit from his predecessor was a Holyrood majority thanks to Ms Sturgeon’s Bute House Agreement with the Scottish Greens.

First Minister Humza Yousaf with Scottish Green co-leaders Lorna Slater and Patrick Harvie at an independence march in Edinburgh. Image: Lisa Ferguson/National World.

When it was announced in August 2021, the deal made a lot of sense. The SNP had relied on the Greens to pass budgets as minority government in the last parliament and the two parties aligned on key policies.

Despite everything thrown at Mr Yousaf in his first year as First Minister, that majority in Holyrood has given him the confidence to legislate. But that authority could be evaporating.

There is an argument to be made that Mr Yousaf has potentially taken the Greens for granted in government and some members have finally had enough of that stance. The legal climate targets being scrapped, albeit with little other choice, is not the only policy where the SNP leadership has potentially swept Green views to one side. Highly protected marine areas were binned off. Lorna Slater also had the troubled deposit return scheme pinned on her despite the SNP policy being a mess before she was even elected an MSP and the UK government essentially killing it off.

Mr Yousaf decided not to take further legal action over the UK government blocking the gender recognition reform legislation, while the decision by NHS Scotland to halt puberty blockers being prescribed following the Cass Review came as spending for gender identity services had been delayed by the Scottish Government. The council tax freeze, announced by Mr Yousaf at SNP conference last year, also dented trust. The Green unrest has potentially been bubbling away for some time, with last week being the final straw for many members.

The future of the Bute House Agreement being determined by the Greens and not the SNP could potentially damage Mr Yousaf’s authority with his own party and the public. SNP backbenchers, who have been calling for the co-operation deal to be torn up for some time, are now fizzing at the prospect of the Greens choosing the future of the Scottish Government.

Those backbenchers have warned the Greens giving the thumbs up or down to the Government makes the SNP look weak. And if the Greens decide to exit the deal, it certainly will look horrendous for Mr Yousaf’s party.

The First Minister can either hold firm and hope the Greens decide to remain in government or, if it looks like his partners are heading for the door, it would make sense for him to hand authority back to the SNP – with party members perhaps taking a different stance on the deal if it looks like the Greens want out.

Whatever happens to the Bute House Agreement over coming weeks, without Mr Yousaf taking a lead, it is very difficult to see an outcome that will not harm his authority.