General Election polls analysis: Chance of a hung parliament rises but Boris Johnson may still win majority

The latest set of opinion polls show a range of results that could see a hung parliament later this month or Boris Johnson returned as Prime Minister with a commanding majority.

According to some polls, the chances of the country heading to another hung parliament have risen.

The Conservatives are still ahead but the gap between them and Jeremy Corbyn’s party has shrunk to nine points, according to YouGov, with less than two weeks to go until the public goes to the ballot box.

Lead down

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Labour is on 34 per cent of the vote share, up two points, while Boris Johnson's party remains on 34 per cent, the survey shows.

A separate survey by BMG Research gives the Tories an even slimmer lead of just six points ahead of Labour, which would most likely deliver a hung parliament. It shows the Conservatives are down two points to 39, while Labour is up five points to 33.

Both polls were taken over 28 and 29 November.

Conservative Party campaign headquarters (CCHQ) is understood to believe any lead less than eight percentage points would return a hung parliament.

The gap between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn is closing. Picture: PAThe gap between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn is closing. Picture: PA
The gap between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn is closing. Picture: PA

Variation between polls

But a Savanta ComRes poll gives the Tories a 10 point lead with the party up two points to 43 per cent and Labour slightly down to 33 per cent.

While DeltaPoll and Opinium give the Conservatives even healthier leads of 13 and 15 points respectively.

Last week, a major poll showed Mr Johnson was on course to win a 68 seat majority, prompting fears within CCHQ that voters will become complacent and either stay home on 12 December or back a different party in the belief the Tories have victory sewn up.

YouGov's multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) model shows the Conservatives would take 44 seats from the Labour party.

This would propel the Conservatives to win a with the comfortable figure 359 seats. Labour would reduce its seats in parliament from 262 in 2017 to 211 this year.

At this point in the 2017 election Theresa may's Conservatives had been forecast to win a majority, but the lead closed, leaving them with a hung parliament.

This story first appeared on iNews.