General Election 2017: What are the most '˜at risk' Scottish seats?
CALUM KERR (Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk) Majority: 308
The SNP spokesman for rural affairs has the smallest majority of any Scottish MP. Calum Kerr’s Borders seat was held by the Liberals for 50 years but the Nationalist tsunami was enough to propel him to victory. The Conservatives will view this as a key target come June 8 - John Lamont was just a few hundred votes short last time. The key question is who the 10,000 Lib Dem voters in 2015 will back in this intriguing three-way contest.
Advertisement
Hide AdAdvertisement
Hide AdDAVID MUNDELL (Dumfriesshire Clydesdale & Tweeddale) Majority: 798
A small disappointment for the SNP on an otherwise glorious 2015 election night for the party was the failure to unseat David Mundell, who remained the Tories’ sole MP in Scotland. On paper, this largely rural seat should be the Nationalists’ number one target. But Mundell enjoys several advantages. As Scottish secretary, he is well-known among voters. And among those firmly opposed to Scottish independence, Mundell is viewed as a strong Unionist voice of reason. The SNP will hope those who voted Lib Dem, Labour and Greens in the constituency in 2015 will this time back them as part of a unified anti-Tory vote.
ALISTAIR CARMICHAEL (Orkney & Shetland) Majority: 817
The former Scottish secretary retained his seat in 2015 despite enduring a rocky campaign following the so-called ‘NiciLeaks’ scandal. Carmichael subsequently admitted he authorised the leaking of a civil service memo just weeks before the election which claimed Nicola Sturgeon would prefer David Cameron to stay on as prime minister - the First Minister described the contents of the memo as “categorically, 100 per cent not true”. Carmichael then saw off an attempt to have him ousted as an MP over the affair when he won a court case in 2015 brought under the Representation of the Peoples Act. But the scandal has dogged him ever since and the SNP will surely be confident of now overturning his majority.
JOHN NICOLSON (Dunbartonshire East) Majority: 2,167
A majority of more than 2,000 would be viewed as comfortable in other election campaigns, but the primacy of Brexit and IndyRef2 in voters’ minds could put a squeeze on candidates. Dunbartonshire East was a safe Lib Dem seat until Nicolson won in 2015. The SNP candidate claimed 22,093 votes - enough to push sitting MP Jo Swinson, with 19,926, into second. The question in June will be whether the sizable number of Lib Dem and Labour voters in the constituency stick with their respective parties or seek alternatives. The Tories will be pushing hard for those turned off by the prospect of a second independence referendum to back blue.
IAN MURRAY (Edinburgh South) Majority: 2,637
Scotland’s sole Labour MP will need no one to explain the importance of him retaining his seat if his party is to gain ground on the Conservatives at Westminster. Murray bucked the trend north of the border in 2015 by comfortably withstanding the SNP surge, but the Nationalists will surely view this as a winnable constituency given Labour’s dismal poll ratings. Labour must hope Murray’s personal vote will be enough for him to hold on for a second time.
MICHELLE THOMSON (Edinburgh West) Majority: 3,210
This seat is likely to be a key target for both the Lib Dems and the Tories. Michelle Thomson has sat as an independent since September 2015 after resigning the SNP whip following allegations over her property business. Police Scotland said in 2016 it was not investigating Thomson but there was “an investigation into Christopher Hales, a 57- year-old solicitor who was struck off and whose services were used by Michelle Thomson for a number of property transactions and inquiries are still ongoing.” The Lib Dems in particular will be in confident mood after winning the Scottish Parliament constituency Edinburgh Western, which has similar boundaries, in 2016.