Gender Recognition Reform: Amendments set to dominate discussions as Bill gets set for final hurdle in Scottish vote

Relief is likely to be the overwhelming emotion on Wednesday when, after five years of fractured, bordering on vitriolic, disagreements, the Gender Recognition Reform (GRR) act passes.

This has been a bruising, exhausting and often infuriating experience for MSPs on both sides of the debate over a Bill that, in 2016, had a level of backing from every single political party.

But, when all is said and done in Holyrood in a couple of days, the process for legally changing gender will have been simplified and de-medicalised, and Scotland will join several other countries in having one of the most progressive approaches to gender identity.

MSPs are set to debate and vote on amendments until as late as midnight on Tuesday, before a debate on the amended version of the Bill and the final vote on Wednesday afternoon. Other than the traditional pre-Christmas denouement of First Minister’s Questions, it will be the last substantive piece of work in Holyrood this year.

The Gender Recognition Reform bill is set to go through Stage Three at the Scottish Parliament.

How far the final Bill aligns with the initial proposals, announced at the start of this Parliament, will ultimately depend on how much cross-party support opponents can muster. Scottish Labour will hold the balance of votes for many of the key divisions.

Two contentious amendments – increasing the proposed minimum age for a young person to obtain a gender recognition certificate from 16 to 18 and another brought forward by a SNP/Tory joint ticket, which would prevent those accused of sexual offences from changing their gender until after their trial – are likely to present the biggest obstacles to the Government.

However, ministers are seeking to avoid a clash on the latter, lodged by SNP MSP Michelle Thomson and supported by Tory MSP, Russell Findlay, by backing a different amendment from SNP MSP Gillian Martin and Tory MSP Jamie Greene.

Government amendments to the latter would avoid human rights concerns and result in a broadly similar outcome to the amendment lodged by Ms Thomson. It would allow the police to apply for a sexual harm order if an applicant is viewed as high risk, allowing an application of someone accused or convicted of a sexual offence to be paused.

Ministers have already agreed to change the legislation to ensure sex offenders must tell the authorities if they apply for a gender recognition certificate.

It is understood the Government will also back Scottish Labour amendments designed to improve reporting requirements and review of the legislation, alongside a raft of amendments from Mr Greene around a statutory aggravator for fraudulent applications.

Some amendments from the Tories and Labour are also viewed as impinging against the European Convention on Human Rights or to potentially open the Government up to legal challenge from the UK Government due to them covering the 2010 Equality Act, which is reserved legislation.

As it stands, the SNP is set to see a repeat of the historically high nine-strong rebellion across several amendments and the final version of the Bill. This is despite the party stating the votes will be whipped, in line with normal government business.

Questions, therefore, could be asked about the future of MSPs such as John Mason, the MSP for Shettleston, who is walking a narrow tightrope after being disciplined earlier in the year by the party for comments about anti-abortion protesters. The chances of a mass expulsion of rebels is slim to zero, however, given such a move would cost the SNP their working majority, even with support of the Greens.

Potential swing voters come in the form of three different groups, namely the four-strong Scottish Liberal Democrat group, Conservative MSPs Mr Greene and Sandesh Gulhane, who voted for the Bill at stage one, and the entire 22-strong Scottish Labour group.

This means the Government requires cross-party support to pass the Bill. It is understood the numbers are there for the Bill to pass, though how comfortably depends on the size of the SNP and Labour rebellions.

Some sources claim the SNP is unlikely to see any additional rebels join the likes of former minister Ash Regan, who resigned ahead of stage one, while others state the rebellion could be as high as 15 or even 20. Numbers vary wildly, underscoring the level of uncertainty.

Scottish Labour, however, are more deeply split. Despite the entire group voting for the Bill at stage one, around half of the party is understood to be sympathetic to opposing the legislation.

However, sources suggested there would be around four or five rebels, including high-profile individuals such as education spokesperson Michael Marra. Other potential rebels include Lothian MSP Foysol Choudhury and Glasgow MSP Pauline McNeill. They will also have to defy the whip to vote against the final version of the Bill.

The Scottish Conservatives, meanwhile, are almost united in opposition, with some working with SNP MSPs in an attempt to push through amendments. Seven separate amendments from Rachael Hamilton, the party’s equalities spokesperson, are backed by SNP veteran Kenny Gibson.

It is understood the Scottish Liberal Democrats are keen to not appear to be key swing voters on contentious amendments. A party source said conversations on which amendments would be backed are ongoing and could continue even while they are debated and voted on in the chamber on Tuesday evening.

The Bill has been one of the most consulted on in the history of Holyrood, and senior SNP sources are regretful about their party’s failure to grasp the nettle on the reform earlier. In the time since it was first mooted, the Bill has exposed a growing rift within the ‘broad church’ of the SNP and the generational shift that has underscored the electoral success and growth under Nicola Sturgeon’s leadership.

A push for progressivity has defined the Sturgeon era – think increased benefits and a serious focus on climate change. But the party is far from aligned on these issues and the internal debate around gender recognition has epitomised this generational and political distance among colleagues often united only by independence.

Younger activists have won the internal debate for now, but there is the possibility of further clashes when the SNP leader steps down. The absence of the hotly tipped successor, Kate Forbes, who is also an opponent of the Bill, from the chamber during the GRR bill due to her maternity leave is a helpful coincidence.

But the GRR bill has also been co-opted by the Conservatives as a culture war issue and with it, an opportunity to dig into these splits within the SNP. It is no surprise the UK Government has also prodded at the SNP’s wounds on this issue as the political heat was turned up.

Scottish Labour and Anas Sarwar have preferred to leave the shouting to their two main rivals, but have also been fractured by the debate due to similar generational splits in the activist base and voting MSPs. There will be nowhere to hide over the next two days for the party.

For many in the Scottish Parliament, seeing the back of this Bill will be the best possible early Christmas present.

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