The First Minister's plan to hold a second independence referendum on October 19, 2023, was scuppered by the UK Supreme Court, which ruled Holyrood does not have the power to legislate in this area.

Her options narrowed, Ms Sturgeon now wants to fight the next general election as a "de facto" referendum, a proposal that throws up more questions than answers. How will this work in practice? Will the SNP coordinate with other pro-independence parties? And how can it ensure the UK Government comes to the negotiating table, when it has shown no desire to do so thus far?

The SNP is due to hold a special party conference on March 19 to thrash out the details. With the next general election scheduled to be held no later than January 2025, there is plenty of time to plot a route forward. On the other hand, there is also plenty of time for holes to be pointed out and events to intervene.

Nicola Sturgeon. Picture: Jeff J Mitchell/PA Wire

The coming months will be pivotal for Ms Sturgeon in guiding her party forward, and with rumblings of discontent within her own movement – illustrated most recently by the change of leadership in the SNP’s Westminster group – there will be continued speculation about her own future, too. Some see the de facto referendum plan as her last throw of the dice; a final push before exiting the political stage for something new. Ms Sturgeon, a cautious politician to her fingertips, has been forced to gamble, and the stakes are high.

With no elections or referendums in the next 12 months, Scotland’s opposition parties will also have an eye on the future general election.

Senior Labour figures believe the party has the momentum in Scottish politics, and say it will be “relentlessly focused” on portraying the upcoming vote as a choice between Labour or the Tories. They concede Ms Sturgeon is popular with the public, but believe there is growing dissatisfaction with key services under the SNP. “Expect to see more of Keir Starmer and [shadow chancellor] Rachel Reeves in Scotland,” one said. The Tories will likely seek to hammer home their unionist credentials.

The year ahead will also be dominated by the cost-of-living crisis and the squeezing of budgets both at a local and national level. Details of a public sector pay policy have yet to emerge, and the threat of further strikes looms large.

The National Care Service Bill, which is making its way through the Scottish Parliament, would transfer social care responsibility from local authorities to a new, national service, overseen by ministers

The draft Scottish Budget, published on December 15, paved the way for tax rises for more than half a million workers. Local authorities have issued dire warnings of services at "absolute breaking point". Will they seek to hike council taxes, or make swingeing cuts elsewhere?

As politicians desperately hunt for cash down the back of the metaphorical sofa, this grim belt-tightening may come to define 2023 more than anything else.

But the Scottish Parliament will also play host to some notable legislative milestones.

Liberal Democrat MSP Liam McArthur is expected to introduce his assisted dying bill in the early part of the year. This would allow mentally competent adults who are terminally ill to end their lives, and is the third attempt to pass such legislation in Holyrood.

The year ahead will be dominated by the cost-of-living crisis and the squeezing of budgets

Campaigners are confident it can win the support of MSPs. If it does, it will be a significant moment in the history of devolution.

Mr McArthur argues the proposals are "tightly drawn", with two doctors required to confirm a person is terminally ill and mentally competent, and a suggested reflection period of 14 days. However, the legislation has already sparked controversy and scrutiny will only increase as it makes its way through parliament.

A BBC adaptation of Scottish writer Andrew O'Hagan’s powerful novel Mayflies, which deals with assisted dying, is set to be broadcast between Christmas and New Year, which could help fuel the wider public debate. Will this come to be seen as the next big liberal reform, or a step too far?

Meanwhile, plans to create a National Care Service, billed as the most ambitious public sector shake-up since the creation of the NHS, will also continue to make their way through the Scottish Parliament. The Government argues the move would eradicate the "postcode lotteries" that currently afflict services up and down the country. However, it is strongly opposed by councils and trade unions. Unite has labelled it an "all-out assault on local democracy".

There has also been growing disquiet over the price tag attached to the scheme. Holyrood’s finance committee, which is convened by SNP MSP Kenneth Gibson, recently expressed “significant concerns” over a lack of detailed costs. It called on the Scottish Government to provide “much needed clarity” ahead of the first vote on the bill, scheduled for March.

Some opposition figures expect the proposals to be watered down. "I don’t see a full-on U-turn, but I could see it quietly being kicked into the long grass,” one senior Tory said.

Legislation is also likely to be brought forward to ban protests outside medical facilities providing abortion services in Scotland. A UK Supreme Court decision related to a similar bid in Northern Ireland has bolstered campaigners, and a proposed bill is being advanced by Green MSP Gillian Mackay.

With no major electoral events lined up in Scotland in 2023, one senior figure spoke optimistically of taking time to think and consider future strategy. For her part, Ms Sturgeon will be buoyed by recent independence polling.

But the road ahead remains unclear, and things rarely work out the way you expect. Just ask Liz Truss.

From independence to legislative milestones, what lies ahead for Scottish politics in 2023?

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