Faint hearts and lost confidence as members charge for the exit

IF LABOUR in Scotland is not a party in meltdown, then it is giving a very good impression of one that is.

The decision by Nigel Griffiths not to seek re-election in Edinburgh South brings to ten the number of Scottish MPs who will not be featuring on the ballot papers this year.

While MPs like the two Johns – McFall and Reid – are arguably coming to the end of distinguished careers, others such as Anne Moffat in East Lothian and Jim Devine in Livingston have been forced out. The charge to the exit appears to be characterised by faint hearts and lost confidence.

Mr Griffiths was expected to lose his seat and others faced tough challenges or seem to have no stomach for opposition.

Adam Ingram (East Kilbride), Mohammad Sarwar (Glasgow Central), Des Browne (Kilmarnock and Loudoun), Gavin Strang (Edinburgh East) and Rosemary McKenna (Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East) are all stepping down. There are strong rumours that at least two others will follow them.

One of the headlines in a press release from Labour's opponents greeting Mr Griffiths' decision not to stand included the words rats, sinking and ship.

It sounds harsh, but many Labour MPs have written off the next election. Even slight gains in the polls leave them far behind David Cameron's Conservatives, and few now seem to have any confidence in Gordon Brown, of whom Mr Griffiths was a close friend and ally.

The main source of Labour replacements for the departing MPs – MSPs – reflects another area of concern for the party, too.

So far, two frontline Labour MSPs – Cathy Jamieson and Margaret Curran – have announced that they want to pursue their political careers in fresh Westminster pastures, while many expect the current health spokeswoman, Jackie Baillie, to follow them, with others rumoured to be considering a similar move.

The talk in Holyrood is that they fear a long period of opposition, partly due to what some believe is steady but uninspiring leadership from Iain Gray.

But what seems to be at the heart of the party's malaise is that, while its support is holding up well relative to the rest of the UK, even north of the Border it is appealing only to the core vote.

By-election victories in Glenrothes and Glasgow North East have been huge morale boosters, and were won with the help of traditional Labour voters.

The problem is, as can be seen in the article on page 10 of The Scotsman today, there is evidence that the key swing voters, such as the middle-class professional women who were won over by Tony Blair, appear now to be planning to give their support to the Tories.