Experts puzzled by continuing fall in Scottish crime levels

Crime in Scotland continues to fall but experts remain unsure what has caused a sharp decline in offences, a situation which has been mirrored across the developed world.

Justice secretary Michael Matheson is keen to reassure Scots about the true level of crime in the country. Picture: John Devlin

There were 688,000 recorded crimes against adults north of the Border in 2014-15, a decrease of 16 per cent since 2012-13 and 34 per cent since 2008-9.

Both violent and property crimes have fallen sharply over the past decade, according to figures from the latest Scottish Crime and Justice Survey.

But more than half of all crimes in Scotland are not reported to the police as many victims feel officers will be unable to assist them.

The majority of adults (74 per cent) felt very safe or fairly safe walking alone after dark, up from 66 per cent in 2008-9.

The dramatic fall in crime is not unique to Scotland or the UK. Across western Europe and North America, certain offences have almost vanished.

In New York City, there were 147,000 vehicle thefts in 1990. By 2012, that number was fewer than 10,000. Violent crime in the biggest American cities has fallen 64 per cent.

Bank robberies in England and Wales averaged around 500 a year during the 1990s yet fell to 69 in 2012.

Social changes and improvements in policing are generally credited with causing such declines.

Western societies are aging, and the relative affordability of household goods such as televisions – once prime targets for housebreakers – are also factors.

In Scotland, street gangs have largely become a thing of the past and youths are more likely to be found at home than congregating outside.

“There is no single factor behind the fall in crime, it is a more an accumulation of things,” said John Carnochan, a former detective chief superintendent with Strathclyde Police and a co-founder of the Scottish Violence Reduction Unit.

“Better policing is only a small part of it, as it should be remembered that not all crime is reported.

“In terms of youth crime, I think we are seeing the benefit of schools having more thoughtful exclusion policies.

“It is something that needs to be examined. Is this a generational thing?

“Children spend more time on their smartphones and computers, but that could mean they are more likely to be victims of online crimes rather than in the street.

“Crime is changing. Years ago, cars were regularly stolen and so were car radios. Thanks to engineering advancements, that’s no longer the case.

“It’s not worth breaking into a house to steal a DVD player if you can buy one for £25.”

While the prison population has increased in both Scotland and the rest of the UK since 2000, crime has still fallen in countries such as Germany and the Netherlands, which have both reduced the number of those jailed.

Justice secretary Michael Matheson said more work was needed to reassure Scots.

“The public still think they are at least two to three times more at risk of experiencing a crime than is actually likely,” he said.

“The country is becoming a safer place thanks to the continued efforts of our communities and law enforcement agencies and I am glad this message seems to be getting through to the public, with those surveyed claiming to feel safer in their neighbourhoods than in previous years.”

MSP Margaret Mitchell, Scottish Conservative justice spokeswoman, expressed concern that the latest Crime and Justice Survey showed public satisfaction with Police Scotland had fallen. The report also revealed that 58 per cent of people thought the single force did a good job, compared to 61 per cent two years ago.

“It’s clear that people are far less satisfied with Police Scotland than they were with the regional set-up,” Ms Mitchell said.

“And it’s no surprise to see the organisation’s reputation suffer after the year it has had.

“It would be deeply concerning if an eroding of the relationship between the police and the public added to the present trend of so many crimes going unreported.

“However, the single force is under new leadership and this coupled with the success of the police sub-committee on policing helping to ensure accountability and transparency within the single force provides an opportunity to make improvements and restore people’s faith.”