Euan McColm: Tories won't take a gamble on Rees-Mogg

Jacob Rees-Mogg has no ministerial experience, and is therefore very unlikely to be the next Conservative leader. Picture: Getty Images

The very idea of him being the leader of a major political party is a joke, isn’t it? There’s no place for a privileged eccentric - with views forged in a bygone age - on the frontline of British politics, is there?

This is 2017, not 1974. The last thing any of us need is a political dinosaur in a position of authority.

Ah, I can see you’re way ahead of me.

It might be tempting to dismiss the idea of Jacob Rees-Mogg as a future leader of the Conservative Party but plenty of us wrote off the prospects of Jeremy Corbyn taking control of Labour and he went on to do so in two consecutive contests and is now revered as a winner by clots who’ve just seen him lose a general election to Theresa May, the worst Prime Minister in living memory.

Mr Rees-Mogg was the subject of feverish speculation on Sunday, when “friends” of his appeared in print suggesting that he was minded to take a tilt at the Tory leadership when a vacancy arises. The 48-year-old MP yesterday played down speculation about his ambitions, telling Radio 4 that stories suggesting he was planning a leadership bid were “a reminder that it’s August and people don’t have pressing UK political news to write about and therefore there’s this jolly stuff about me, but I wouldn’t put any money on it.”

Let us for a moment consider the possibility that Mr Rees-Mogg wasn’t dancing on the head of a pin in an attempt not to answer the question. If this was so, and he is not interested in succeeding Mrs May, his was a statement in which the message “I do not want to be leader of the Conservatives” could have been made more explicit.

Mr Rees-Mogg, with his self-deprecating appearances on “Have I Got News For You” and his elaborate politeness, is - as Boris Johnson once was - the political toff it’s okay to like. But behind his rightfully affable persona lies a politician whose socially conservative views - opposition to same sex marriage, support for benefit cuts - hark back to a time when we all knew our places.

The truth is that Mr Rees-Mogg, with no ministerial experience, is unlikely to be the next Tory leader. But speculation about his career reminds us that, although they have not yet acted, Conservative MPs intend to relieve Mrs May of her responsibilities at a time of their, rather than her, choosing.

In the aftermath of June’s general election, which the Prime Minister called to strengthen her position in parliament and which resulted in her having to depend on Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party to get a working majority, the view from within Tory ranks was clear: Mrs May was for the chop. It was merely a matter of when, precisely, the chop would be delivered.

Brexit negotiations played their part in providing the PM with a stay of execution. Tory MPs quickly formed the view that a period of relative stability was required while a deal for the UK’s departure from the EU was hammered out.

But that process, unsurprisingly, is not turning out to be quite so straightforward as some - Mr Rees-Mogg included - would have had us believe. With the Brexit negotiations already looking messy. some Tories are asking what is the point of sticking by Mrs May?

Wouldn’t it be just as well, they ask, to get another Prime Minister in place, now, and let whoever that might be get on with the job with a clean pair of hands?

Scottish Conservative Party leader Ruth Davidson’s name comes up again and again whenever there’s speculation about Mrs May’s successor. Those who’d like to see Ms Davidson in Downing Street will not be deterred by such trivia as the fact she has repeatedly ruled herself out (“we can persuade her”) or by the fact she’s an MSP rather than an MP (“a seat can be found”),

But those Conservatives who dream of a modern, socially liberal party under Ms Davidson’s leadership are, I think, kidding themselves if they think that’s what their members want.

Ms Davidson’s high profile cheerleaders - pro-EU MP Anna Soubry, say, or Chancellor-turned-editor George Osborne - are of the David Cameron era which, although recent, might as well have been decades ago.

Just like Labour MPs who wanted a centrist for leader got, in Jeremy Corbyn, an unreconstructed left-winger, those Tories who dream of a leader of the middle-ground are doomed to be led, I am certain, by a politician of the traditional right.

Ms Davidson is quite sincere in her ambition of becoming First Minister. And, while this surely remains an unlikely turn of events, she is in her current job for the long term.

Though Jacob Rees-Mogg’s chances of becoming the next Conservative leader are slender, when Theresa May is toppled, she will be replaced by someone who shares his zeal for Brexit. The Prime Minister’s position on the matter - she doesn’t believe it’s the right thing to do but she’s going to make a success of it - hasn’t convinced Eurosceptic colleagues, understandably emboldened by last year’s referendum result.

Brexit Secretary David Davis told the audience at Alex Salmond’s Edinburgh Fringe show on Sunday that he was “a very, very bad leadership candidate.”

Were I, like Mr Salmond, a betting man, I’d have 20 quid on Mr Davis as next Prime Minister.