Energy policy will not cut gas emissions

EMISSIONS of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2 ), believed to be the chief cause of global warming, will remain exactly the same by the year 2020, despite a government commitment to producing 40 per cent of Scotland’s energy from renewable sources.

Just days after Ross Finnie, the environment minister, said Scotland would meet the ambitious target for renewable energy production, The Scotsman has learned that such action will make no contribution to reducing the amount of CO2 pumped into the atmosphere in Scotland - the prime motivation for setting the target in the first place.

Experts at the Scottish Energy Environment Foundation (SEEF) have forecast that, based on current government policy outlined in February’s energy white paper, the environmental benefits of a greater commitment to renewable sources of power will be offset by the decommissioning of nuclear power in Scotland.

The white paper, which set out the energy policy of the country for the next five years, pledged to put a five-year block on planning new nuclear power stations and increase renewable sources such as wind, wave and tidal.

The strategy was broadly welcomed by environmental pressure groups, who hailed it as excellent news for Scotland where much of the UK’s renewable resources lie.

However, others dismissed the white paper as a "policy-free zone" and insisted "intermittent" and "unproven" renewable resources were no answer to Britain’s need for reliable, continuous electricity.

SEEF, an independent advisory organisation set up by the Executive to examine energy demand and efficiency, has developed an "emissions profile" rolling forward to the year 2030. Assuming that the 40 per cent target will be met by the Executive and electricity generating companies, the emissions profile looks at what effect the decommissioning of the Chapelcross, Hunterston and Torness nuclear power stations - all of which are totally CO2 free - together with the coal-fired Cockenzie and Longannet power stations, will have over the next 30 years.

Because of the current white paper strategy of no nuclear rebuild, the plan is to replace the energy deficit, which will be left by the gradual phase-out of the above stations, with clean, gas-fired power stations together with renewables.

Chris Bronsdon, the director of SEEF, said: "Because some of the nuclear and coal stations are coming off-line, the overall effect on what’s happening in the emissions profile depends on what is used to replace them. In all of the possible cases, unless you are replacing the power deficit with nuclear or completely CO2-free generation, emissions will not drop."

Gary Connor, an energy policy officer with SEEF, added: "Emissions will continue to fall until the 2020s at which point they will go higher than they are currently unless the source is replaced by nuclear or some sort of CO2-free option, which, to be honest, is a dream and is not going to happen.

"This may be countered by the Executive looking at providing more electricity than 40 per cent from renewable sources by 2020. Unfortunately, as you build up to higher percentages of renewables, questions are raised about the security of that supply."

Mr Bronsdon said that the benefits of the current 40 per cent target set by the Executive would be "great" and would provide lots of opportunities for jobs and sustainable development across Scotland.

But he added: "At the same time, you have to ask what the overall aim of what we are trying to achieve is. If it is emissions reduction then even if we meet the 40 per cent target, we will be slightly worse off."

Dan Barlow, the head of research at Friends of the Earth Scotland, said the climate change emission benefits, beyond 2020, of adopting a 40 per cent renewable target would only be fully realised if action is taken to reduce the year-on-year growth in electricity demand and use, which has risen by 9 per cent since 1991.

He added: "Combining energy efficiency with the development of renewable energy should form the basis of sustainable electricity generation for Scotland and on no account should we even contemplate the development of nuclear facilities which have shown themselves to be economically and environmentally disastrous."

A spokesman for the Executive said: "The UK government has stated its intention to achieve a reduction in CO2 emissions by 60 per cent by 2050.

"As part of the UK effort to achieve this reduction, the UK government has reaffirmed its commitment that 10 per cent of electricity supplied in the UK should be from renewable sources by 2010. If achieved, a 40 per cent target for Scotland is estimated to deliver savings of up to 4.5 million tonnes of carbon in 2020."

He added: "Actual carbon savings will depend on a range of factors, not least the fuel source that renewables will displace. The Executive has also set objectives for improved energy efficiency and building standards, and published new planning policy guidelines."