Emergency budget review analysis: Brace yourself, this is just the start of the difficult decisions

In any ordinary year, an SNP finance minister standing up and outlining the second half of £1.2 billion worth of cuts would result in widespread fury.

But 2022 is no ordinary year, and these are no ordinary circumstances. John Swinney is in the position of wanting to fund cost-of-living policies while facing intense inflationary pressures, all with the backdrop of political chaos and economic incompetence from a 44-day administration at Westminster.

For that he is awarded a degree of credit from his opposite numbers who, while criticising certain choices, were reserved around where blame ultimately lays. The issue for Mr Swinney, however, is this goodwill has a shelf life. It won’t last beyond December 14.

The emergency budget review is, in reality, a prologue to the difficult decisions sitting around the corner. Like a giant, flashing, warning light, these cuts are the part of the horror movie where ordinary people would turn around, go home and have a mug of hot chocolate. Unfortunately, the plot demands Mr Swinney continues.

Deputy First Minister John Swinney speaks to the media after delivering a budget statement to the Scottish Parliament at Holyrood, Edinburgh.

On December 15, the day of the budget, Scots can expect the full horror of the fiscal reality facing the Scottish Exchequer. The key moment of Wednesday’s statement was not the announcement of £615 million in additional cuts, but was instead when Labour’s Daniel Johnson questioned the finance secretary on earmarked reserves for the next financial year. They have disappeared and are yet to be rediscovered, Mr Swinney said. That means more cuts and the prospect of flat-cash, public service-killing settlements could be replaced by real and cash-terms cuts.

If that is the reality, then expect to hear more pleas for additional funding from cash-strapped councils facing budget gaps in the tens of millions, from the culture sector struggling to keep museums open, and the justice system only now beginning to recover from the pandemic.

It could worsen still for the SNP/Green Government. Should the Autumn Statement from Jeremy Hunt on November 17 outline cuts to devolved areas, yet more savings will have to be found down the back of the sofa.

There is a serious possibility the Scottish Government is bounced into tax rises to just maintain existing spending levels, rather than increasing funding to stretched and under-pressure public services. Never mind difficult, these are close to impossible political choices.

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