Eddie Barnes: Leader’s standing in the public’s eyes is not bad enough to be good news for Labour

MODERN politics is cruel. Yesterday, Ed Miliband gave a speech in London on restoring his party’s fortunes. It was preceded by a Radio 4 interview in which it was suggested he looked too weird to become prime minister.

He began late, prompting jibes he was using the time to solve the Rubik’s Cube – 22 times. As he spoke, with a view of a Thames barge behind him, one commentator wanted to know whether a sinking ship made the best background for a relaunch speech. It wasn’t sinking at all – but when the pack has ridicule in its snouts, facts can be of secondary importance.

The background noise to Mr Miliband’s speech yesterday encapsulates the Labour leader’s difficulties. On the surface, the leader of the Opposition appears to be making a decent fist of the job. There was the successful assault on News Corp last summer. There was his Predator-vs Producer speech at the Labour conference which, while clunky, is at least still remembered, and increasingly copied. Yesterday, his speech, while vague, made an attempt to address the key issue facing the centre-left: how to deliver social justice when there’s no money to spray around anymore. This sets Labour off on a potentially more interesting policy direction (and one Scottish leader Johann Lamont needs to examine) than before.

And yet his numbers absolutely stink. A YouGov poll at the weekend suggested that Mr Miliband is just managing to stay above Michael Foot and Iain Duncan Smith in the popularity stakes, deep in the political death zone. Peter Kellner, YouGov’s president, argues that Mr Miliband is unpopular largely because Labour is unpopular. But, given the huge significance of the leader’s job in modern TV-dominated politics, the ratings of party and leader are, in reality, inextricably intertwined. And Mr Miliband’s performance is not helping.

Put simply, Mr Miliband does not yet meet the Downing Street pavement test. Not enough people can yet envisage him outside No10. But, unlike Mr Duncan Smith or Mr Foot, he does has a grasp of the task required of him. Potentially, this is even worse for Labour.

It’s not that Mr Miliband is bad, the problem may be that he’s not bad enough – and, therefore, destined to stay in post until 2015. On current evidence, that way leads defeat.