David Maddox: Beware of a bloodier round two

AFTER all the waiting and the months of speculation over what will happen to Britain's military forces in the Strategic Defence and Security Review, this week's conclusions will almost certainly not be an end to the matter.

The expectation is that there will be another review, possibly bloodier in terms of personnel, once the army is out of Afghanistan, probably some time in 2012.

The belief is that the Treasury is feeling sore at not getting its way on defence cuts with just 7 per cent or 8 per cent savings expected, compared with the 10 per cent George Osborne was demanding.

The Chancellor, when interviewed yesterday, barely bothered to hide his discontent over the way he had been forced to allow the aircraft carriers to be built.

So what will emerge this week is being widely described as "a fudge" between the two camps in the government.

There is the group led by Defence Secretary Liam Fox, supported by the majority of Conservative Party members, who want defence to remain primary and Britain to continue as a global player.

There are others, including Mr Osborne, who would rather make large-scale military cuts to balance the books, and essentially reduce Britain to a north European regional power.

The "fudge" gives the impression of a world power, while bringing spending down towards regional levels.

If, as expected, there is to be another review down the line, then there are several offerings.

By then, the RAF, which is expected to take the brunt of the cuts this time round, may have little to offer, particularly in Scotland.

But with Britain no longer at war, the army's battalions are at risk.

Future shipbuilding is also in peril and if, as has been suggested in some quarters, the navy has lost amphibious craft, then the Royal Marines will also be looking over their shoulders to the enemy in Whitehall.