Could bringing Kate Forbes back to Cabinet help Humza Yousaf's ailing stint as First Minister?

The defeated leadership contender turned down a role in the Cabinet at the start of Yousaf’s tenure.

Humza Yousaf hugs Kate Forbes in the main chamber during the vote for the new First Minister at the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh.

As Humza Yousaf surveyed the wreckage of the Rutherglen and Hamilton by-election, scores of SNP figures took to social media and newspaper column inches to dissect what the correct over-reaction would be to such a result.

The truth is that by-elections offer little in terms of clear messages, but the momentum they provide is a lifeblood for any opposition movement both within party walls or from external, red-hued opponents.

Those around Yousaf are stuck between denial and cautious acknowledgement. Some believe the SNP’s voters are still there, others believe defeat is a complex beast.

The result, in any case, is a First Minister under attack from all sides, both externally and internally.

One internal critic is Kate Forbes who while keeping her own powder dry, is represented in the media by key allies such as Fergus Ewing, Michelle Thomson, and Ivan McKee.

Bringing the Skye MSP back into the Cabinet fold could be portrayed as a sensible response to a by-election beating, one where the SNP demonstrate explicitly they continue to be a broad church and are listening to Highland communities.

It would also bind Forbes by collective responsibility, neutralising the power of her interventions from the backbenches, powerful as they have been when standing in support of Ewing following his suspension and when voting against Highly Protected Marine Areas.

The question would then be which job. Confidence in Shona Robison to competently deliver a budget is low, but any movement of a Yousaf ally out of such a high profile role to make room for an arch critic would be a difficult sell to the troops.

Finance, however, is likely the only job Forbes will say yes to. If it is offered, the difficult decisions of hundreds of millions in cuts guaranteed to be part of this year’s budget will be owned by her as well as Yousaf.

It would, in the short term, have the potential to neutralise her ‘shadow government’.

There is considerable risk with such a strategy.

Emboldening a rebel in such a way and providing them with in-depth, cabinet level understanding of the problems facing the government and, critically, the involvement of the Greens could intensify briefings against Yousaf.

Forbes’ judgement has also been called into question. Some who were impressed prior to the leadership contest view her as talented but ultimately fatally flawed. In government, that could be teased out by opposition politicians.

Ultimately, however, promoting your closest rival as a response to a by-election drubbing and extensive briefings against you telegraphs only one thing, and that is weakness.

Weakness a returning Forbes, at the heart of government, in charge of the purse strings, could excel at exploiting for her own gain.