Clyde shipyard cuts ‘may lead to 2,400 job losses’
The University of Strathclyde’s Fraser of Allander Institute said the knock-on effect of BAE Systems’ announcement could cost the Scottish economy £195 million a year.
But the shipbuilding industry will continue to make a significant contribution to the Scottish economy.
It will support more than 7,000 jobs and generate nearly a quarter of a billion pounds, according to the institute’s impact assessment.
“While there is clearly relief that the closure of the yards has been averted, it is useful to consider the scale of the job cuts on the Scottish economy as well as the remaining impact of the Glasgow naval yards on the Scottish economy,” it said.
“Govan and Scotstoun shipyards employ around 3,200 people in Glasgow, and the cuts announced by BAE will reduce the workforce by around a quarter.”
Researchers used these figures along with Scottish Government statistics on the flows of goods and services in the economy to estimate the wider impact of the cuts.
“The Fraser of Allander estimates that the 800 job losses at Govan and Scotstoun will result in total job losses across Scotland of around 2,400 jobs (including those at the shipyards) equivalent to 1.4% of all Scottish manufacturing jobs or 0.1% of all jobs in Scotland,” they said.
“The Institute also estimates that the GVA (gross value added) impact of the loss of 800 jobs on the Clyde - based on a GVA multiplier of 1.68 - will result in a loss of GVA in the Scottish economy of £195 million, or around 0.1% of total Scottish GVA.
“However, it should be noted, that even in its reduced state, the shipbuilding industry will continue to make a significant contribution to the Scottish economy.
“The Fraser of Allander estimates that using the above multipliers, the Govan and Scotstoun yards in Glasgow - even after the announced redundancies - will continue to support over 7,000 jobs across Scotland and generate nearly a quarter of a billion pounds (£244.7 million) GVA for the Scottish economy.”
BAE said 940 jobs would go at Portsmouth, while 835 will be lost in Glasgow, Rosyth, and at Filton near Bristol.