The modelling by the Scottish Government estimates Scotland’s GDP could be around 6.1 per cent lower by 2030 compared to if it remained a member of the EU over that period.
The analysis released on Hogmanay – and described by Constitution Secretary Michael Russell as “sobering” – lays out challenges presented in mitigating the wide-ranging impact of the deal.
It also underlines why the Scottish Government believes the best future for Scotland is as an independent country within the EU.
Mr Russell said: “This analysis is sobering reading for anyone with Scotland’s best interests at heart.
“Post-Brexit relationships with the EU could have taken many different forms and the damaging outcome with which we are now faced is the result of a political choice by the UK Government, and firmly against the wishes of Scotland.
“As a responsible government, we are doing everything we can to mitigate against the consequences of the UK Government’s actions, but we cannot avert every negative outcome.
“We know that businesses are already struggling under the burden of Covid-19 and are now faced with the need to prepare for the economic shock of this hard Brexit.
“Our position is clearer than ever – Scotland now has the right to choose its own future, as an independent country and seek to regain the benefits of EU membership.
“This analysis demonstrates the substantial benefits that we would regain by becoming an independent member state in our own right.”
The analysis lays out what Scotland has lost by leaving the EU with Boris Johnson’s trade deal – and what it would regain by rejoining.
It highlights the impact on the economy, trade in services, fisheries, participation in EU programmes, internal security, free movement of people and the environment.
The analysis was released as Eurosceptic Tory MPs hailed the impending end of the Brexit transition period as a "victory for democracy and sovereignty".
The UK will leave the single market and customs union at 11pm on Thursday, 11 months after it formally exited the bloc.