Bill Jamieson: Scots No 1 conservatives (small c) in Britain

WHY? What has driven Scotland to vote in the opposite way to the rest of the UK? What made us deliver a swing to Labour that flattened the Conservatives, pushed back the SNP and confounded almost all pundit prediction?

Scotland did not so much "buck the UK trend" as throw a convulsive spasm back to the order as it was five years ago – and a few decades before that. Central Scotland, and Glasgow in particular, reverted to Labour overwhelmingly, flattening all recent talk of deep change afoot in Old Labour heartlands.

Take Margaret Curran's performance against John Mason, the SNP by-election winner in Glasgow East. This was no narrow squeak victory by Labour: Ms Curran blew the SNP away by piling up 19,797 votes, a majority of almost 12,000. If Mason's by-election victory was "off the scale", Curran's matched that of the Icelandic volcano.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

In East Renfrewshire a Conservative surge had been due. Instead, Labour's Jim Murphy increased his vote to a thumping 25,987 votes, and his majority to 10,000. In the first seat to declare in Scotland – Rutherglen and Hamilton West – Labour's Tom Greatrex piled up 28,666 votes, a majority of 21,002. North Korea's Kim Il-jong would have beamed in appreciation.

From these early results the shade of deepest red spread across the map in the manner of an election in the 1930s.

Frank Roy held Motherwell and Wishaw with a majority of 16,806. What does that say about the much vaunted demographic alteration of Britain, rising social mobility and the heterogeneous flux of the modern age?

There are many explanations. There was the poor quality campaign of the Scottish Conservatives, its utter lack of buzz and intellectual excitement. If politics is the battle of ideas, the Conservative idea never germinated. There was barely a single endorsement by any cultural leader or intellectual figure. Is "barren ground" an explanation for the Conservative trouncing? Or empty husks mistaken for new seed?

There was also a sympathy in Scotland for Gordon Brown the more he came in for a media pasting. Even those who would never dream of voting for him know that there is a fleck of him in us all. So a Tory campaign round the slogan: "Let's Get Rid of Gordon" was never going to play as well in Ayrshire East as in the huntin' 'n' shootin' south.

And then there was the vacuity of the opposition campaigns. Who could take seriously the SNP's line of "No Cuts Here", a slogan that could only have been dreamt up for a subsistence economy based on sheep and with no phone on the island.

There is, I believe, a deeper reason why Scotland voted as it did, and one that will give little comfort to Scotland's Labour victors in this campaign. Scotland does not much care for change – and never has. We are "out of step with the rest of the UK" because this is the most deeply conservative (small 'c' most definitely) constituency of all the UK nations and regions. They are Plasticine. We are granite.

Scotland has a longing for the old, the trusted and the familiar; a distrust of experiment; a fear of risk and an instinctive recoil in the face of the unknown and unfamiliar. We are also fired by a blazing desire to defend what we have for fear that "change" is a euphemism for taking it away. And we are easily scared by ghosts and bogles. The proof? Merely mention the name "Thatcher" and "slaughter of the first-born" and we will scurry inside and slam the doors.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

It is certainly true Scotland has a larger public sector and more people working, directly or indirectly, for government than the rest of the UK. But we take our values from official public institutions and the people who are their guardians and custodians.

They may defend the producer interest and fight off reform that threatens their interests. But this group has been growing in Scotland since the 1930s and its values and ideology have become deep-seated. Austerity and cutback are anathema to this class. Government provides, government knows best and government must be big.

Any serious attempt to effect a change in this attitude will require a much longer and more nuanced challenge than anything so far offered by the Scottish Conservatives.

The people, for now at least, are far more conservative than they are.

• Scottish results by constituency

General Election 2010: More news and analysis

• Tories offer a deal to Lib Dems

• If you are selling your soul, do it properly

• Scottish Labour hails divided Britain

• Conservatives blame Labour scare tactics – and Annabel Goldie

• Nationalists chide 'chippy, nippy' strategy

• Why did they rain on our parade, Lib Dems ask

• 'Victorian' voting system to be overhauled

• No Portillo Moment but big names ditched

• Legal challenges predicted amid reports of polling station chaos

• Axe could fall first on Osborne with Clarke tipped as Chancellor

• Nail-biting victory in capital typifies Labour's hold over Scotland

Analysis

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

• John McTernan: A race for power that left every runner gasping

• Eddie Barnes: Chances of victory thrown away

• John Curtice: Mould of the two-party system isn't broken yet, but a very large crack has appeared

• Gerry Hassan: Scotland is a different political beast with the Holyrood elections looming

• Brian Monteith: Tories must 'die' to rebuild

• Joyce McMillan: Forget the Doomsday scenario, here's the Caledonian Paradox

Economy

• Call for swift action on debt mountain as pound suffers

• Bank chief Stephen Hester seeks 'strong stewardship' of economy after election

• Borrowers and investors will pay for further unsettling delay

• Result no shock for mortgage lenders

In brief

• Pamela Nash, 25, becomes the Baby of the House

• BBC's election triumph as 17m viewers tune in

• Green makes history as party's first MP

• Blur drummer fails to be elected - again

• Tory Speaker's wife fails in bid to win seat for Labour

• Bitten but not bitter MP celebrates

• Cameron odds-on to be PM by June

• 14-year-old voter prompts inquiry

• Man arrested over ballot paper protest