Analysis: Will Scotland follow Wales into 'firebreaker' lockdown?

As Wales goes back into the kind of comprehensive lockdown imposed across the UK earlier in the year, the prospect of Scotland following suit has now been thrown into focus.

Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford briefed Nicola Sturgeon by phone this morning before he went public with a tranche of new restrictions.

People have been ordered to stay at home, while pubs, restaurants, hotels and non-essential shops will shut down.

And although primary schools will reopen after their half-term break, only Years 7 and 8 will go back in secondary schools. Outdoor and indoor gatherings will also be banned in an effort to halt the rising tide of infections.

An empty Grassmarket amid lockdown measures

So, is Scotland likely to follow suit?

Well not at the moment. All options do remain on the table.

If the steady rise in infection rates north of the Border of recent weeks, and crucially hospital admissions, continues unabated then such an intervention may be unavoidable.

But Ms Sturgeon was at pains to point out today that Scotland is in a "different position" from Wales. There have been significantly greater restrictions in place north of the Border, such as a more rigid definition of what constitutes an extended household.

In Wales, this can be people from up to four different households.

In Scotland, extended households can only be formed by two different households - and one must be a single person living on their own.

The significance of this should not be underestimated given household mixing is believed to be a major source of spread of the virus.

There has also been a ban in Scotland on people outwith extended groups going in and out of other peoples' houses, unlike Wales. The past ten days have also seen a mini "circuit-breaker" approach adopted here with bars and restaurants across central Scotland ordered to close - while those in those other parts of the country must shut their doors at 6pm - and have been banned from serving alcohol.

People in central Scotland are also banned from travelling outwith their own health board areas, as are people in other parts of the country from travelling into these areas.

The First Minister will be anxious to see what the impact of these restrictions is, with a lag of about three weeks or so before tangible results start to come through.

Even after that, the new strategic approach being devised by ministers, including the “tiered” system of alert levels, will come into effect, which may see different measures implemented in different areas of Scotland.

It is hoped this will prove sufficient to keep transmission under control until a vaccine can be found and will form the cornerstone of the approach going forward.

But the situation remains fluid. Scotland’s R number stands at 1.3-1.6, having fallen below one after the spring lockdown.

Daily positive tests regularly now top 1,000 while hospital admissions now exceed 750, having been below 50 just a month or so back.

And as the “tiered” approach flounders south of the Border amid clashes between local mayors and central government, while case numbers surge, the prospect of national lockdown in England is gathering pace.

If that happens, and cases here show no sign of abating, a similar blanket lockdown in Scotland may be inevitable.

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