Analysis: Will a Brexit deal save the PM’s approval ratings, and does he want one?

The Prime Minister has vowed to walk away without a deal if the EU refuses to compromise, and insisted the UK does not need an agreement to flourish on the international stage.

The PM last week suggested there would be no deal with the EU

The opposition parties are incredulous, it’s having a damaging impact on unionism in Scotland and many of his own MPs are concerned, but refusing to speak out. Hello 2019, we’ve missed you.

October has seen support for Scottish Independence reach 58 per cent, Sir Keir Starmer become the most trusted leader, the Internal Market Bill spark resignations and legal challenges. SAGE documents have shown calls for a circuit breaker were ignored and professional bother Jennifer Arcuri claims she and Mr Johnson had an affair. Politics, bloody hell.

This was then followed last week by the PM missing his self-imposed deadline for a Brexit deal, and declaring Britain must now prepare for an Australian-style solution. This is, of course, the type of scheme used by the economic powerhouse of Afghanistan, and one even Australia itself is trying to negotiate it’s way out of.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson

This would see Britain and the EU trade under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules, bringing huge tariffs on imports and exports.

It is such an appealing proposition even the co-convener of Vote Leave Michael Gove has warned it will “not be a picnic” and insisted he wants a deal.

His rousing endorsement was today echoed by business secretary Alok Sharma, who told LBC the difference between no-deal and an Australian-style arrangement was simply “semantics”.

Mr Johnson admits a deal is preferable, so do his ministers. Yet today they are launching a new campaign urging businesses to get ready for no deal. Why are they doing this now?

Ultimately it’s posturing. Sticking two-fingers up to Brussels and walking would no doubt be popular with some of the electorate. It’s a lot more impressive to do it and have them still come to the table.

Delivering a deal faces the three problems it always has - fishing, state aid and governance.

These problems haven’t changed and the negotiations are continuing.

Today Mr Gove has met with his EU counterpart Maroš Šefčovič, while chief negotiators Michel Barnier and David Frost were also due to speak.

That’s not Mr Johnson walking away, it’s Draco Malfoy declaring how tough he is while sending in Crabbe and Goyle to ask if they can be friends.

Playing hardball over the Withdrawal Agreement provided the Prime Minister a huge boost last year, and a swell in support that ensured the death of Corbynism as well our European membership. It may have been with compromises that Theresa May insisted “no Prime Minister could accept”, but the optics worked and a majority was ensured.

This is a Government obsessed with messaging. It’s oven-ready, get Brexit done, build back better, put our arms around every worker, the people’s Government and now, bizarrely, time is running out.

Being tough on the EU is where the PM is most comfortable. It’s where he has seen the most electoral success, and an area where his grandiose up-and-at-’em rhetoric seems suited.

It lands a lot better than his calls to “wrestle”, “fight” or “take personal charge” of coronavirus.

There is also the matter of party management. The PM is currently facing extended criticism both publicly and privately over his handling of coronavirus, and establishing the EU once again as the “other” is a guaranteed way to rally the troops.

Seeing MPs fall back in line once Sir Keir called for a circuit breaker last week was a stark reminder nobody falls into line quicker than Conservatives.

After winning the election on the back of his Brexit deal last year, the PM had vowed to “never take your support for granted”, and lead a Government for “everyone from Woking to Workington; from Kensington, I'm proud to say, to Clwyd South; from Surrey Heath to Sedgefield; from Wimbledon to Wolverhampton”.

On January 2 he tweeted a picture of himself with his thumbs up, saying: “This is going to be a fantastic year for Britain.” Reader, it wasn’t.

His chief adviser Dominic Cummings broke the lockdown restrictions in May and the support for the PM has fallen ever since.

Nobody could expect any PM to handle this crisis perfectly, but for some Mr Johnson has struggled to seem like a leader when the nation needs it most. You cannot laugh or slogan your way past a pandemic.

The gap between the two big parties has now narrowed from eight points to just three over the past month. The Tories are down five points to 40 per cent since August, their lowest vote share since October 2019, the same month he secured the Withdrawal Agreement.

Another poll shows two-thirds of Brits think leaving the Brexit transition period without a trade deal with the EU would be a "bad" outcome for the UK. Speaking immediately after his election win last year, Mr Johnson had vowed to “put an end to all that [Brexit] nonsense”, but here we are, still having the same arguments. The difference is this time he has not brought the public with him.

As a Winston Churchill obsessive and biographer, the PM is a man who understands legacy, and ensuring a deal would guarantee that.

There is a big difference to being the man who led Britain out of Europe into its new future, or being the Prime Minister at the deck when it dropped out. Brexit does not simply mean Brexit.

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