Analysis: SNP is at risk of becoming trapped in a narrative of decline

The First Minister is weighed down by both personal and professional challenges as the SNP holds its conference in Aberdeen

Humza Yousaf will take to the stage at the SNP's conference in Aberdeen after an extraordinarily difficult week for the First Minister and his family.

His parents-in-law have been trapped in Gaza since the devastating Hamas attack on Israel, where they now face nightmarish conditions.

Mr Yousaf was visibly emotional as he told journalists earlier this week that he and his wife, Nadia El-Nakla, were "sick with worry". In an interview yesterday, he wiped away tears.

Humza Yousaf at Bute House in Edinburgh. Picture: Jane Barlow/PA Wire

There is huge sympathy for the couple in Holyrood and beyond. The ordeal no doubt makes the argy-bargy of Scottish politics seem very small indeed.

Nevertheless, the SNP goes into its annual conference in a tricky position, to say the least. The ongoing police investigation into its finances continues to cast a shadow, while polls – such as the one published in The Scotsman today – do not make happy reading.

The party lost the recent by-election in Rutherglen and Hamilton West amid a huge 20.4 per cent swing to Labour, and on Thursday morning the MP Lisa Cameron dramatically defected from the Nationalists to the Conservatives. Such a move is unprecedented.

Meanwhile, there is ongoing internal unhappiness over the SNP's power-sharing agreement with the Greens. Fergus Ewing, a party veteran, is currently fighting a week-long suspension after backing a Tory no-confidence motion in Lorna Slater, the Green minister.

"I actually feel sorry for Humza," one SNP MSP told me, echoing the view of many party colleagues. "He's inherited an absolute sh*tshow."

A lot of people have "emotionally checked out", they said. "Trying to instil that enthusiasm where people would give up their Saturday, it's a rainy day, to go and knock on people's doors – if they've been largely ignored and not valued, folk will just not bother," they added. "That's what happened to the Labour Party."

The MSP described Mr Yousaf's independence strategy as "potentially extraordinarily risky". The First Minister himself appears to be shifting position.

The leadership is expected to move away from a claim that winning the “most” seats at the general election would be a mandate to begin independence negotiations, and instead replace this with a “majority” of seats. This sort of tinkering will do little to convince those who believe the whole approach lacks credibility, however.

Alex Neil, a former SNP minister, said the focus should be on driving up support for independence to 55 per cent or above over a sustained period of time. "Westminster would have to acknowledge that," he told The Scotsman.

Speaking ahead of his first conference since taking over from Nicola Sturgeon, Mr Yousaf made it clear he wants to draw a line under the endless debates about process. “Let me be very frank about this, at conference once we’ve had that debate – and I’m sure in the best traditions of the SNP, it’ll be frank, it’ll be robust – that’s it,” he said. “We’re done.”

Instead, he wants to focus on the substantive arguments for independence, linking it to the cost-of-living crisis, the economy and public services. Those around Mr Yousaf say he is far from complacent about the challenges his party faces.

A source close to the First Minister said the SNP had a real fight on its hands. "That’s not a bad thing for people to understand that, to absorb that and then to act on the basis of that,” they said.

The source added: "In that sense it's a wake-up call – that you've got to work really hard. You've got to relentlessly communicate with the electorate, with your local electorate if you're a parliamentarian in a constituency. It requires hard work and it requires teamwork."

Some believe the Bute House Agreement with the Greens is damaging the SNP. "The agreement is not working for us," Mr Neil said. "We are being tied to daft policies that are vote losers for the SNP."

He suggested there could be a limited parliamentary pact with the Greens instead, focusing on issues the two parties agree over. "I'm not saying we get completely divorced,” he added.

Ivan McKee, a former SNP minister and the MSP for Glasgow Provan, told The Scotsman: “I think there’s a need for there to be a discussion on it.”

Mr Neil also wants the First Minister to bring Kate Forbes, the former finance secretary who lost the leadership contest to Mr Yousaf, back into government. "It's crazy, in my view, that somebody with her talent is left on the backbenches,” he said.

Ms Forbes, who some still see as a potential challenger to Mr Yousaf, will miss the SNP conference as she is abroad. Mr Ewing will also be absent. It isn’t really what it used to be, he told the Press and Journal.

Earlier this week, Mr Yousaf made an appeal for party unity. “The old maxim is true: divided parties simply don’t win elections, so we have to heal the divisions that exist,” he said. The First Minister is widely seen as more approachable than his predecessor.

"The party leader’s door is more open than at any time I have known it,” Stewart McDonald, the SNP MP for Glasgow South, told The Scotsman’s politics podcast this week. “The guy is willing to talk, and you can’t criticise him for that. You might not always get what you want from the leaders you engage with, but the willingness to have dialogue is more open than it’s ever been.”

The SNP is at risk of becoming trapped in a narrative of decline. What Mr Yousaf does next will be crucial. With a general election approaching, the clock is ticking.