Analysis: Record Scottish Independence poll gives SNP hope but Labour offer warnings of the past

Nicola Sturgeon can seemingly do no wrong.

Independence has seen a surge in support in a recent poll

During the week of arguably her most damaging sparring match with both the Alex Salmond inquiry and the former First Minister’s briefing machine and where she imposed strict new curbs to freedoms to battle Covid-19, her approval ratings continue to hold up.

Simultaneously, the Scottish Government’s handling of Covid-19, whether objectively successful or not, continues to see support for Scottish Independence surge.

IpsosMori’s most recent poll, undertaken last week, with don’t knows included puts Yes at 55 per cent while, more starkly, No sits at just 39 per cent, dipping below 40 per cent for the first time.

For some in the independence movement this might be a sign that the argument for a radically different Scotland has been won, or at the very least enough hearts have been turned by the comparative appeal of Nicola Sturgeon over Boris Johnson.

The First Minister’s net approval ratings are more than 100 points above ratings than her UK counterpart, and according to the poll, independence supporting parties look set to return close to two-thirds of the total seats in Holyrood.

The SNP’s lead over their nearest challengers – the wilting Scottish Conservatives who, rather than recover since Douglas Ross’ appointment have stagnated around the 20 per cent mark – is nearly 40 per cent.

Scottish Labour show no signs of bouncing back after the failed coup against their leader Richard Leonard, of whom 38 per cent of voters still don’t hold an opinion (less than Douglas Ross, who is yet to impact on 40 per cent of voters), and sit further behind and face the possibility of dropping to single figures.

The lead is more than enough for complacency to start creeping in.

But, their old rivals are a lesson to the SNP and it would be wise for those leading the party to remember Labour’s experience of the 2011 election.

Then, Scottish Labour lost a 15 point lead in the polls and the resulting SNP landslide has seen a collapse in support for the former Scottish powerhouse as its position on independence (or lack of) continues to eat away at its traditional support.

For the SNP, it would be a mighty feat to lose the wheel to the Scottish Government from here.

But in politics, no lead is unassailable.

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