Analysis: Has political gravity finally caught up with the SNP?

With Labour now neck and neck with the SNP, can the nationalists defy political gravity once again?

In April, I wrote that the decline of the SNP felt like it was on the verge of feeling terminal.

That was at the height of the drama around the police investigation into party finances which continues to dog the party and its reputation.

But if that felt terminal, the last week for Humza Yousaf must surely have felt apocalyptic.

With his mind understandably with family in Gaza, the tides of Scottish politics are likely to be the bottom of his priority list.

And yet as we enter the SNP conference, there is a palpable sense of crisis, of a party drowning under the weight of self-inflicted injury, being dragged down by the Labour behemoth about to stamp all over British politics as the country turns against the Conservatives at a general election.

For years, the SNP felt protected from political gravity, appearing to operate in a steady orbit at the top of Scottish politics while others had differing levels of success getting rockets off the ground.

But in Savanta’s latest poll for The Scotsman, that irrepressible force of nature appears to have taken hold.

SNP voters clearly understand the self-evident prospect of a Labour government after the next general election, something they desire and have been told to push for by the SNP since 2010.

Independence is no longer a salient issue which motivates most voters, and any appeal made to true believers is likely to backfire.

Just 16 per cent of Scots believe it is a top three priority. Immigration, for years a fringe Scottish issue, is considered just as much of a priority.

Tactical voting by unionists could turn what was always likely to be a backwards step for the SNP into a rout.

In that sense, Scottish politics is on a knife-edge from another colossal rearrangement.

The only consolation, and it is a slim one as their support continues to slide away, is the party retains its lead in Holyrood and is still set to – just – be the largest party.

Yousaf’s only saving grace and the SNP’s only hope is, alongside the Scottish Greens, return enough MSPs to deliver yet another SNP First Minister and stop Anas Sarwar in his tracks.